Posted: March 27 2010. Excerpts:
"...As we have said before the exposure of the problems in Greece, those of all the PIIGS and in the US, California, Arizona, Pennsylvania, New Jersey and New York, open a whole new phase of the debt crisis. The world is in a sovereign debt crisis. In Europe and in the US there are talks regarding a reduction in leverage in currency, which will only cause a liquidity crisis. A rise in interest rates will only compound the problem.
In addition we believe mortgage debt, both commercial and residential, will be sucked into the vortex adding to the woes. This is a replay of what occurred in the 1930s in the debt markets.
Do not forget the bond market is 10 times bigger than the stock market and if something has to be sacrificed it will be the stocks, not the bonds. The replay will find stocks falling first, followed by bonds. The bond problem is already very visible; 19 nations have had their credit ratings cut and the US and UK and others will soon follow. That is why we continue to say that the only safe haven is in gold and silver related assets. As we have said previously the only way to handle the problem is for nations to meet, have a multilateral official devaluation and debt default settlement. That will be followed by a deflationary depression, which will be accompanied by another worldwide war.
The debt load, particularly in advanced economies, is overextended and unsustainable at more than 400% of GDP in the US alone. That is 25% higher than US debt was in the 1930s. Those who do believe debt will be settled and currencies devalued, also know that
recovery from that debt will take 20 or more years.
At the center of this greed and corruption are derivatives and securitization, which are simply a Ponzi scheme form of finance. These instruments were central to bringing down AIG and GM. The lenders, the large banks, brokerage houses, investment banks and insurance companies wrote
these financial products, most of which are and were uncollateralized. As a result of this unethical disaster the American taxpayer was put firmly on the hook to repay this debt and to bail out the lenders...
As you can see the
problems are not going away and they won’t disappear until the system is purged. More than $3 trillion has been poured into GM, AIG, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and Wall Street banks and brokerage houses by American taxpayers via the Fed and the Treasury. As a result the biggest violators have become even bigger, which was the intention from the beginning. As an example, JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, Citigroup and Goldman Sachs hold almost 40% of all bank deposits. The credit crisis and the debt crisis are far from over. The desk chairs have just been rearranged. Not only will seven million more people lose their homes this year creating a 3-year home inventory for sale, but also lenders will get hit with commercial real estate they cannot possibly finance. We see another minimum of four more years of defaults both in the US and Europe.
Taxpayers cannot save the system indefinitely, especially when the players that caused all this are back leveraging and speculating again.
We are facing a commercial debt crisis that no one expects. We are going to see hundreds of US banks fail this year, which the FDIC does not have the funds to cover.
This year or next we are facing a sovereign debt crisis in the US, Europe and elsewhere.
We are looking at tariffs on goods and services next year. All derivatives should be outlawed except on transparent exchanges and present positions should all be unwound. Europe is already moving ahead on this matter and hopefully an international conclusion can be reached. In addition Glass Steagall should be reinstated and the Fed’s job be turned back to the Treasury Department.
Bearing out what we discussed earlier
there is little talk of all G-7 members soon reaching more than 100% of GDP in public debt. As a result every one of these 7 countries have serious problems.
In addition they are still expanding M3 or M4. Power and cash consumption shifts more and more toward governments. Banks have cut back lending by some 20%. They are holding government paper probably at the behest of government. The foreign treasury buying could very well be the Fed funding the purchases. Then the carry trade and hedge funds do their part as well. This could be a position of diminishing returns if interest rates rise in the real market, which we believe they will.
Some 30 major nations have the same problem the US has and that is funding their own debt, as well as America’s. Again, we have long believed that Treasury funding from the UK, Caymans and other sources was merely a front for Fed purchase of Treasuries. That in part is what the swap agreements are all about.
...Consumer spending accounts for the lion's share of the economic activity. The economy cannot recover until trust is restored. Trust won't be restored until the fraud actually stops, the criminals are prosecuted, and the fox is fired from his role as chicken coop guard.
Bill Gross: As a November IMF staff position note aptly pointed out, high fiscal deficits and higher outstanding debt lead to higher real interest rates and ultimately higher inflation, both trends which are bond market unfriendly. In the U.S. in addition to the 10% of GDP deficits and a growing stock of outstanding debt, an investor must be concerned with future unfunded entitlement commitments, which portfolio managers almost always neglect, viewing them as so far off in the future that they don’t matter. Yet should it concern an investor in 30-year Treasuries that the Congressional Budget Office estimates that the present value of unfunded future social insurance expenditures (Social Security and Medicare primarily) was $46 trillion as of 2009, a sum four times its current outstanding debt? Of course it should, and that may be a primary reason why 30-year bonds yield 4.6% whereas 2-year debt with the same guarantee yields less than 1%.
The trend promises to get worse, not better. The imminent passage of health care reform represents a continuing litany of entitlement legislation that will add, not subtract, to future deficits and unfunded liabilities
WSJ editorial:
U.S. cities, states and the feds have issued more than $2.5 trillion of new debt since 2008, with another nearly $2 trillion scheduled in 2010.
States and cities face $1 trillion to $2 trillion of additional unfunded liabilities in opulent state employee pension and health-care plans. Even as states can't maintain their roads and bridges, politicians have diverted hundreds of billions in tax money to finance salary and pension increases for government workers..."
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