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Jul 14, 2010

Austerity: Why and for Whom?

by Rick Wolff  


Clearly, the global capitalist crisis that started in 2007 will be neither short nor shallow. The government rescue of the US financial industry pumped enough extra money into the economy and sufficiently reduced interest rates to give banks and the stock market the heavily hyped "recovery" that started March 2009 and is now over. What is worse, their recovery never reached much of the rest of the economy. Efforts to broaden the recovery or extend it beyond one limp year have failed. That failure cost Washington trillions in borrowed funds from lenders who now demand guarantees that those loans will be repaid to them with interest. Similar demands now confront many other governments who likewise borrowed heavily to cope with the crisis in their countries.

The guarantee demanded by lenders is "austerity." Lenders want governments to raise taxes or cut government spending or both. Governments will then have more money available to pay interest on loans and to repay those loans. Governments that fail to impose austerity will face higher interest on new and renewed loans or will be denied loans which would cripple those governments' usual operations. Austerity is yet another extreme burden imposed on the global economy by the capitalist crisis (in addition to the millions suffering unemployment, reduced global trade, etc.).

Who are these lenders demanding austerity? The globally active financial enterprises -- mostly banks that collapsed in the crisis and were rescued by their home governments -- are, together, also major lenders to those governments. Banks own their own governments' debts but also other governments' debts. For example, major banks in France and Germany are among the Greek government's chief creditors. US banks and related financial enterprises hold significant amounts of other governments' debts and other nations' banks own much US government debt.

Global capitalism's 2007 crisis froze the credit system that sustains capitalist production. Private borrowers -- enterprises and individuals - could no longer repay loans because their investments had generated too little and their incomes had failed to grow enough. Banks had failed to properly assess risks in deciding how much to lend to whom. They therefore stopped lending to private borrowers because that had become too risky. As private borrowers defaulted and new lending atrophied, banks' capital and their profits collapsed. The whole capitalist system ground toward a halt because credit became unavailable. The only solution most leaders in capitalist countries could conceive was to unfreeze credit by having the government guarantee bank solvency, guarantee many private debts, invest massively in and lend to private banks, and become the ultimate borrower of a huge portion of loanable funds. Banks everywhere lent to governments because it had become unsafe to lend to almost anyone else. Governments everywhere used the borrowed money to rescue banks and other financial enterprises.

This peculiar "nationalization" of debt served capitalism by having the government temporarily function as the lender and borrower of last resort. Nationalization unfroze the credit system sufficiently to stop the crisis from collapsing global capitalism. Few policy-makers (and few others) in 2008 and early 2009 worried much about the consequences of so massively increasing government debts. The looming possible capitalist system collapse overwhelmed worry about any "longer run."

The international banks that were rescued (from their own bad loans and investments) by governments now worry that governments they lent to won't be able to repay those loans. Banks threaten to make further loans much more costly or even impossible unless those governments impose "austerity." Most political leaders recognize that the banks' threats, if carried out under their watch, would end their careers quickly and badly. All capitalists see in possible government defaults the specter of another credit freeze with terrifying ramifications for global capitalism. Still worse for those banks: governments in default would not likely be able to borrow again to rescue banks again.

Nearly all current political leaders of major capitalist countries responded positively to the banks' demand for austerity (as in Canada's recent G-20 meeting). This immediately raised a basic political conflict always simmering inside capitalism: who will pay increased taxes and who will suffer decreased government spending? Militants in Europe have already marched and struck against austerity as an unacceptable plan to make workers pay to fix capitalists' crises; more general strikes are set in many European nations with a Europe-wide general strike now scheduled for September 29. Meanwhile, capitalists work with politicians to define as "reasonable in crisis times" austerity programs mixing both tax increases (chiefly on workers) and spending cuts (chiefly on workers).

An Athens trucker says, "Public employees here don't work hard enough, so it is reasonable to cut their pay." A Parisian clerk thinks it "reasonable to postpone the official retirement age a few years; we all live longer now." A Minneapolis office worker agrees that it is "reasonable, in crisis times, to get by with fewer public services." A New York laboratory technician supports a new tax on cell-phones as "probably reasonable; after all, people overuse them." Remarkably, such notions of "reasonable" are silent about other possible and, to say the least, more "reasonable" forms of austerity.

Let's consider some alternative "reasonable" kinds of austerity (i.e., austerity for others) and then question austerity itself. Serious efforts to collect income taxes from US-based multinational corporations, especially those who use internal pricing mechanisms to escape US taxation, would generate vast new federal revenues. The same applies to wealthy individuals. The US has no federal property tax on holdings of stocks, bonds, and cash accounts (states and localities levy no such property taxes either). If the federal government levied a 1 per cent tax on assets between $100,000 to 499,000, and 1.5 per cent on assets above $500,000, that would raise much new federal revenue (everyone's first $100,000 could be exempted just as the existing US income tax exempts the first few thousands of dollars of individual incomes). Exiting the Iraq and Afghanistan disasters would do likewise. Ending tax exemptions for super-rich private educational institutions (Harvard, Yale, etc.) and for religious institutions (church-goers would then need to pay the costs of their churches) would be among the many other such alternative "reasonable" austerity measures. Comparable alternatives apply -- and are being struggled over -- in other countries.

A capitalist system that generates so massive a crisis, spreads it globally, and then proposes mass austerity to "overcome" it has lost the right to continue unchallenged. Should we not be publicly debating whether America (and the world) might be better served by going beyond capitalism? Can we not learn from capitalism's repeated cycles (failures) and change to a new, non-capitalist system? Having learned hard lessons from the first socialist attempts during the last century in Russia, China, and beyond, can we not rise to the challenge to make a new attempt that avoids their failures and builds on their strengths? When better than now?

***
Rick Wolff is a Professor Emeritus at the University of Massachusetts in Amherst and also a Visiting Professor at the Graduate Program in International Affairs of the New School University in New York. He is the author of New Departures in Marxian Theory (Routledge, 2006) among many other publications. Check out Rick Wolff’s documentary film on the current economic crisis, Capitalism Hits the Fan. Visit Wolff's Web site and order a copy of his new book Capitalism Hits the Fan: The Global Economic Meltdown and What to Do about It.






Genetic damage and health in Fallujah Iraq worse than Hiroshima

 
Results of a population-based epidemiological study organized by Malak Hamdan and Chris Busby are published tomorrow in the International Journal of Environmental Studies and Public Health (IJERPH) based in Basle, Switzerland. They show increases in cancer, leukemia and infant mortality and perturbations of the normal human population birth sex ratio significantly greater than those reported for the survivors of the A-Bombs at Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945
 Results of a survey in Jan/Feb 2010 of 711 houses and more than 4000 individuals in Fallujah show that in the five years following the 2004 attacks by USA-led forces there has been a 4-fold increase in all cancer. Interestingly, the spectrum of cancer is similar to that in the Hiroshima survivors who were exposed to ionizing radiation from the bomb and uranium in the fallout. By comparing the sample population rates to the cancer rates in Egypt and Jordan, researchers found  there has been a 38-fold increase in leukemia (20 cases) almost a  10-fold increase in female breast cancer (12 cases) and significant increases in lymphoma and brain tumours in adults. Based on 16 cases in the 5-year period, the 12-fold increases in childhood cancer in those aged 0-14 were particularly marked. The cancer and leukemia increases were all in younger people than would normally be expected. Infant mortality was found to be 80 per 1000 births which compares with a value of 19 in Egypt, 17 in Jordan and 9.7 in Kuwait

An important result is that the sex-ratio, which in normal populations is always 1050 boys born per 1000 girls was seriously reduced in the group born immediately after 2005, one year after the conflict: in this group the sex ratio was 860. Birth sex ratio is a well known indicator of genetic damage, the reduction in boy births being due to the fact that girls have a redundant X-chromosome and can therefore afford to lose one though genetic damage; boys do not. Sex ratio was similarly reduced in the Hiroshima survivors children. “This is an extraordinary and alarming result” said Dr Busby, who is visiting Professor in the University of Ulster and Scientific Director of Green Audit, an independent environmental research organization. He added: “To produce an effect like this, some very major mutagenic exposure must have occurred in 2004 when the attacks happened. We need urgently to find out what the agent was. Although many suspect Uranium, we cannot be certain without further research and independent analysis of samples from the area.”  Malak Hamdan, who organized the project said: “ I am so glad that we have been able to obtain a proper scientific confirmation of all the anecdotal evidence of cancer and congenital birth defects. Maybe now the international community will wake up”.
 
Contact: Chris Busby (France) +44 7989 428833
Malak Hamdan (London) +44 7903 153163
Richard Bramhall: +44 1597 825771
 
Chris Busby, Malak Hamdan and Entesar Ariabi  Cancer, Infant Mortality and Birth Sex-Ratio in Fallujah, Iraq 2005–2009 Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2010, 7, 1-x; doi:10.3390/ijerph707000x

UK public sector could have £4 trillion of hidden debts

The UK’s public sector debt could be nearly £4 trillion higher than headline figures suggest, according to new research that highlights the scale of the economic challenges facing the Government.


Telegraph.co.uk By Jonathan Sibun, Assistant City Editor
Published: 6:00AM BST 14 Jul 2010
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) released a study revealing that the public purse could be faced with £4.84 trillion of liabilities compared with the current public sector net debt figure of £903bn.
David Hobbs of the ONS described the public sector balance sheet as an “open-ended concept” as he outlined liabilities that are considered to be “off-balance sheet” or not covered in official debt measures.




The Government’s stakes in RBS and Lloyds Banking Group could add another £1 trillion to £1.5 trillion, the ONS said, the largest potential liability.
Meanwhile, unfunded public service pension obligations could account for a further £770bn to £1.2 trillion, while unfunded state pension schemes amounted to between £1.17 trillion and £1.35 trillion.
“For transparency, it is important for a broad range of information on public sector liabilities, obligations and contingencies to be made readily available, whether or not included within balance sheets,” Mr Hobbs said.
The report also highlighted a potential £200bn of off-balance sheet obligations from private finance initiative schemes, and £40bn in nuclear decommissioning liabilities.
Hr Hobbs also set out a further £500bn miscellaneous grouping of guarantees and contingent obligations, some of which “are more likely to materialise than others”.
The total in liabilities and obligations came to £3.68 trillion to £4.84 trillion.
The report comes just a day after a study by the Institute of Chartered Accountants in England and Wales (ICAEW) and the Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) revealed that there could be a further £1.13 trillion of liabilities above current debt estimates.
Michael Izza, ICAEW chief executive, said: “While there are important debates to be had about specific spending cuts, I believe that meaningful reform is necessary to underpin sustainable public finances over the long term and create a culture of fiscal responsibility.”
Charles Davis, managing economist for CEBR, said that public sector pension liabilities were by far the biggest consideration.
Mr Davis said the Office for Budget Responsibility had a key role in assessing the debt mountain facing Britain, but it should clearly outline the assumptions it used and total public sector liabilities.
“Clarity and transparency on the public sector finances has never been more vital in the context of recent concerns over public sector debt, particularly in the advanced economies,” he said.
Standard & Poor’s, the ratings agency, earlier this week kept Britain’s debt rating on negative watch, saying it had concerns about the forecasts laid out by George Osborne, the Chancellor.



Nothing to see: NIST Denies Access to WTC7 Data



FINDING REGARDING PUBLIC SAFETY INFORMATION
Pursuant to Section 7(d) of the National Construction Safety Team Act, I hereby find that the disclosure of the information described below, received by the National Institute of Standards and Technology ("NIST"), in connection with its investigation of the technical causes of the collapse of the World Trade Center Towers and World Trade Center Building 7 on September 11,2001, might jeopardize public safety. Therefore, NIST shall not release the following information:
1. All input and results files of the ANSYS 16-story collapse initiation model with detailed connection models that were used to analyze the structural response to thermal loads, break element source code, ANSYS script files for the break elements, custom executable ANSYS file, and all Excel spreadsheets and other supporting calculations used to develop floor connection failure modes and capacities.
2. All input files with connection material properties and all results files of the LS-DYNA 47-story global collapse model that were used to simulate sequential structural failures leading to collapse, and all Excel spreadsheets and other supporting calculations used to develop floor connection failure modes and capacities.
~
Patrick Gallagher Director National Institute of Standards and Technology
Dated: JUL 09 2009

Former Member of Clinton Regime: Obama Needs “A 9/11 Event or an Oklahoma City Bombing” to Command Confidence

T.H.E.Y. are telling in your face for the nth time how they gain your trust and consesus/acquiescence:


From Cryptogon:

July 14th, 2010
“The bottom line here is that Americans don’t believe in President Obama’s leadership,” says Rob Shapiro, another former Clinton official and a supporter of Mr Obama. “He has to find some way between now and November of demonstrating that he is a leader who can command confidence and, short of a 9/11 event or an Oklahoma City bombing, I can’t think of how he could do that.
Research Credit: PL

Collapse in Living Standards in America: More Poverty By Any Measure

15 million unemployed, homelessness has increased by 50 percent in some cities





Global Research, July 14, 2010
Stateline - 2010-07-08


More than 15 million Americans are unemployed, homelessness has increased by 50 percent in some cities, and 38 million people are receiving food stamps, more than at any time in the program’s almost 50-year history.

Evidence of rising economic hardship is ample. There’s one commonly used standard for measuring it: the U.S. Census Bureau’s poverty rate. It guides much of federal and state spending aimed at helping those unable to make a decent living.

But a number of states have become convinced that the federal figures actually understate poverty, and have begun using different criteria in operating state-based social programs. At the same time, conservative economists are warning that a change in the formula to a threshold that counts more people as poor could lead to an unacceptable increase in the cost of federal and state social service programs.

When Census publishes new numbers for 2009 in September, experts predict they’ll show a steep rise in the poverty rate. One independent researcher estimates the data will show the biggest year-to-year increase in recorded history.

According to Richard Bavier, a former analyst for the federal Office of Management and Budget, already available data about employment rates, wages, and food stamp enrollment suggest that an additional 5.7 million people were officially poor in 2009. That would bring the total number of people with incomes below the federal poverty threshold to more than 45 million. The poverty rate, Bavier expects, will hit 15 percent — up from 13.2 percent in 2008, when the Great Recession first started to take its toll.

Still, the U.S. Census Bureau’s new numbers will offer only a partial picture of how the nation’s sputtering economy is affecting the poorest Americans — a problem state officials and the Obama administration want to address.

Overestimating food costs

The current formula for setting the federal poverty line — unchanged since 1963 — takes the cost of food for an individual or family and multiplies the number by three, under the assumption that people spend one-third of their incomes putting meals on the table. While the formula may have been a good way to estimate a subsistence cost of living in the early 1960s, experts say food now represents only one-eighth of a typical household budget, with expenses such as housing and child care putting increasing pressure on struggling families.

In addition, the official measure fails to account for regional differences in the cost of housing, it doesn’t include medical expenses or transportation, and at $22,000 for a family of four, the poverty line is considered by many to be simply too low.

Equally worrisome for policy makers is the Census Bureau’s failure to consider in-kind federal and state aid in calculating income. The existing formula counts only pre-tax cash income, leaving out such benefits as food stamps, housing vouchers and child-care subsidies, as well as federal and state tax credits for the working poor. 

As a result, the nation’s official poverty count is unaffected by the billions spent on safety-net programs. Yet it remains by far the most frequently used measurement of how well governments are taking care of their most vulnerable citizens.

Conservatives have consistently argued that if safety-net programs were taken into account, the poverty rate would be much lower. At the same time, advocates for the poor have argued that poverty counts would be much higher if the cost of housing, child care and other expenses were factored in.

Nearly two decades ago, Congress asked the National Academies of Science (NAS) to revisit the official poverty measure and come up with recommendations for a new measure that would satisfy critics on both ends of the spectrum. 

This past March, the Obama administration said it would use the NAS 1995 guidelines to update the federal government’s poverty calculation and promised to unveil the first new “supplemental poverty measure” in September of 2011.

“The new supplemental poverty measure will provide an alternative lens to understand poverty and measure the effects of anti-poverty policies,” Under Secretary of Commerce Rebecca Blank said. “Moreover, it will be dynamic and will benefit from improvements over time based on new data and new methodologies.”

Under the NAS recommendations, Commerce Department expenditure data for food, clothing, shelter and other household expenses would be used to set a poverty threshold for a reference family of four — two adults and two children. Then a family or individual’s resources would be compared to that line by including income and in-kind benefits, with taxes and other non-discretionary expenses, such as medical expenses and child care, excluded.

Because many expect the new calculation will result in a higher poverty count, the March announcement met with fiery criticism from some conservatives who charged the federal government could ill afford to increase its safety-net spending.

State experiments

But state and local policy makers applauded the move because they said it would give them the tools they need to assess the effectiveness of anti-poverty programs.

In New York City, for example, where an NAS-type poverty measure was adopted three years ago, Mayor Michael Bloomberg said the new data would allow the city to pinpoint who needs assistance most and which of the city’s social services have been most effective at improving its residents’ standard of living.

Using an updated measurement, New York City found that children — the recipients of a broad range of social welfare programs — were less poor than originally thought, while elders, who were struggling with previously unaccounted for medical expenses, were poorer.

As states become increasingly challenged by shrinking revenues and rising numbers of people in need, more than a dozen have set up commissions to help low-income families and many have set poverty reduction goals.

Among them, Minnesota and Connecticut have used NAS-like formulas to assess the effectiveness of current and proposed anti-poverty measures.

With technical assistance from the public policy research group The Urban Institute, both states used the results to support aggressive anti-poverty campaigns. Minnesota has a Legislative Commission to End Poverty in Minnesota by 2020, and Connecticut created a Child Poverty and Prevention Council with the goal of cutting child poverty in half by 2014.

Connecticut found only a slight increase in the number of people living in poverty when using the updated calculation — 21,000 people in 2006, compared to 20,000 using the existing Census measure.

But it got very different results when determining which public assistance programs did the most to reduce poverty. Under previous assumptions, child care subsidies and adult education and job training were seen as the most highly effective at moving people out of poverty over time. But the new formula showed that increasing enrollment in programs such as food stamps, energy assistance and subsidized housing was a more effective way to reduce child poverty in the near term. As a result, the state redoubled its outreach efforts to sign up as many low-income families as possible for these federally-funded programs.

In Minnesota, where the results were similar, a bipartisan legislative committee recommended the state refine its definition of poverty, build public awareness, and carefully monitor the impact of all major legislation on existing anti-poverty programs.

Both states joined 12 others earlier this year in calling on the federal government to adopt an NAS-like formula that would “consider the increased financial burden of housing, child care, and health care on the modern American family while recognizing the benefit of critical work supports such as tax credits, food stamps, and other non-cash subsidies.”

The administration’s supplemental poverty measure remains controversial, and some leaders on both ends of the political spectrum are urging Congress and the administration not to adopt the new formula for purposes of allocating federal funding or determining individual eligibility anytime soon.

If used to parse federal grants among states, it could radically change the amount of money each state receives. It stands to reason, for example, that a family of four trying to make it on $22,000 would have an easier time in rural Alabama than they would in suburban Massachusetts. And should the new measure be used to set individual eligibility for safety net programs, some are fearful that current recipients would be disqualified if all of their federal and state benefits were counted.

For the Obama administration, the Census Bureau’s current measure is problematic because it will fail to show the benefits of at least $100 billion in 2009 stimulus money spent for low-income families.  Even so, as those direct subsidies and other job-creating federal funds are phased out, advocates expect the poverty rate will shoot up again next year, when the data is in for 2010.



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Protect Your ASSets: Buy Gold or Silver NOW - If you wait you will be late.
(He who panics first, just may salvage something.