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May 26, 2011

Harvard Prof Warns Pension Funds Will Take Hits on PIIGS Debt

From Economic Policy JournalTHURSDAY, MAY 26, 2011



Harvard's Gita Gopinath,  at a Dublin-based forum -- titled Adjusting to New Realities, warned that (mostly European) pensions -- who are large holders of PIIGS debt -- may be forced to take a loss on their investments as a result of the European sovereign debt crisis. Gopinath stated that the solution to the crisis would likely be for bondholders, including pension funds, to take some form of a loss on their investments, "given the sheer scale of the debt amounts involved."

In attendance at the forum were Europe's largest institutional investors and asset managers responsible for the investment of more than €1 trillion of funds. In a poll, 75% of those in attendance saw a high likelihood of default in the Eurozone within three years.

And Now: Secret Laws


US dictatorship is getting ridiculous. This seems taken straight from a Monty Python's film: 
 By Tom Burnett

Rense, 5-26-11

"You are under arrest." 
 "For what?" 
 "It's a secret. You have already been tried and convicted." 
 "By who?!?!?" 
 "It's a secret. You are going to be executed at midnight." 
 "EXECUTED?!?!?!?" 
 "Yeah. I'll bet you wish you didn't do whatever it is you did." 
 "Wait! Don't YOU know?" 
 "No one knows. It's a secret law." 

 SEN. WYDEN DECRIES "SECRET LAW" ON PATRIOT ACT An amendment offered on May 24 by Sen. Ron Wyden would have challenged the Administration's reliance on what he called "secret law" and required the Attorney General to explain the legal basis for its intelligence collection activities under the USA PATRIOT Act. But that and other proposed amendments to the PATRIOT Act have been blocked in the Senate. "The public will be surprised... when they learn about some of the interpretations of the PATRIOT Act," Sen. Wyden said, based on his access to classified correspondence between the Justice Department and the Senate Intelligence Committee. http://www.fas.org/irp/congress/2011_cr/wyden052411.html

"U.S. Government officials should not secretly reinterpret public laws and statutes in a manner that is inconsistent with the public's understanding of these laws or describe the execution of these laws in a way that misinforms or misleads the public." 
 "We can have honest and legitimate disagreements about exactly how broad intelligence collection authorities ought to be, and members of the public do not expect to know all of the details about how those authorities are used," Sen. Wyden said. 
"But I hope each Senator would agree that the law itself should not be kept secret and that the government should always be open and honest with the American people about what the law means." 
 But the Senate moved toward cloture on reauthorization of the PATRIOT Act provisions and the Wyden amendment, which was co-sponsored by several Senate colleagues, was not permitted to be offered or to be voted upon. 
 The House Judiciary Committee issued a report last week on the reauthorization of surveillance provisions in the USA PATRIOT Act, with a lengthy dissent from the minority members of the Committee. 

See "FISA Sunsets Reauthorization Act of 2011," House Report 112-79, part 1, May 18, 2011: http://www.fas.org/irp/congress/2011_rpt/fisa-reauth.html 

 In 2008, then-Sen. Russ Feingold chaired a Senate Judiciary Committee hearing on "Secret Law and the Threat to Democratic and Accountable Government." http://www.fas.org/sgp/congress/2008/law.html 


Ron Paul Warns Of Dictatorship

The last nail is being driven into the coffin of the American Republic. Yet, Congress remains in total denial as our liberties are rapidly fading before our eyes. The process is propelled by unwarranted fear and ignorance as to the true m…eaning of liberty. It is driven by economic myths, fallacies and irrational good intentions. The rule of law is constantly rejected and authoritarian answers are offered as panaceas for all our problems. Runaway welfarism is used to benefit the rich at the expense of the middle class. Who would have ever thought that the current generation and Congress would stand idly by and watch such a rapid disintegration of the American Republic? Characteristic of this epic event is the casual acceptance by the people and political leaders of the unitary presidency, which is equivalent to granting dictatorial powers to the President. 
Our Presidents can now, on their own:
1. Order assassinations, including American citizens,
2. Operate secret military tribunals,
3. Engage in torture,
4. Enforce indefinite imprisonment without due process,
5. Order searches and seizures without proper warrants, gutting the 4th Amendment,
6. Ignore the 60 day rule for reporting to the Congress the nature of any military operations as required by the War Power Resolution,
7. Continue the Patriot Act abuses without oversight,
8. Wage war at will,
9. Treat all Americans as suspected terrorists at airports with TSA groping and nude x-raying.
And the Federal Reserve accommodates by counterfeiting the funds needed and not paid for by taxation and borrowing, permitting runaway spending, endless debt, and special interest bail-outs.
More Here..

Why Aren't EU Protests Aimed at Central Banks?

From The Daily Bell, Thursday, May 26, 2011 – by Staff Report
 
ECB presses battle against Greek restructuring ... The European Central Bank kept up its attacks on the idea of letting Greece restructure its crushing debt load, even as a top ratings agency argued that Germany's banks would probably survive losses from such a move with credit ratings intact. Juergen Stark, the European Central Bank's chief economist, said at a conference in Berlin on Wednesday that cutting Greece's debt by letting it pay later or less than the full amount owed to banks and other bondholders was not the simple solution some think it is. "To think that there is an easy way out, in that a country's debts are largely or fully relieved, is an illusion," Stark said. "Debt relief cannot and must not be the solution ... We should think one connection further when we use this miracle word debt relief, or debt restructuring," he told a conference organized by a group linked to Chancellor Angela Merkel's party. – AP


Dominant Social Theme: Central banks simply are not important. Remember that!


Free-Market Analysis: We can see from the above article excerpt that it is the ECB mainly that is behind the European Union's "immoveable rigor" when it comes to enforcing austerity measures on Greece, and other EU PIGS as well. It is always this way with central banks. Their members and operators tend to be the most holy about fiscal integrity because they are the least so in practice.
The ability to print money from nothing is the singular achievement of modern elites and the single most ruinous practice of the modern state. It is responsible for most if not all of the abuses of modern history, from torture, to war, to genocide. Money-printing (not money) is at the root of all evil.
It is strange that EU protests and Greek protests in particular have not in particular taken aim at central bankers and their banks. (At least not that we can tell.) Government buildings, police stations, private and commercial banks, all these have been targeted. But in our view, if EU protests over austerity are to be effective, it is central banks that have to be peacefully targeted on a consistent basis. A message needs to be sent and only physical protests around central banks can do that.


The ECB, for instance, needs to be targeted intensively. National central banks as well, even if they have lost power. Only by showing that Greeks actually understand what is going on – and who is to blame – shall austerity and other oppressive measures be overcome. That goes for Ireland and Portugal (and Spain). Imagine if citizens of Ireland, Portugal and Greece gathered peacefully in Brussels at the door of the ECB and stayed there day-after-day, night-after-night in all their swelling thousands. Imagine the shock. Imagine, eventually, the dialogue that would take place. Imagine what the mainstream media, eventually, would be forced to write.


When long ago the Irish Republican Army – as one feedbacker pointed out yesterday – began to take aim at the City of London with bombings, negotiations suddenly, surprisingly began. That's because the City of London is where the real power lies – central banking power in particular. The power to create money-from-nothing is the main power ofmercantilism. The City of London exercises it. It has loaned its power to the ECB and the BIS as well.
A protest in Switzerland aimed at the BIS would be effective. It is a pretty trip at this time of year. Switzerland is full of flowers – and bankers. The flowers it has had always; central bankers only these past 400 years or so.


Of course, we do not advocate bombing of anyone under any circumstances; but showing the power elite where the blame lies via peaceful protest could be remarkably effective. One does not, in fact, need to sleep on sidewalks; or confront army tanks of water cannon. One simply needs to start to organize peaceful, sit-down protests outside the West's larger central banks.

John Maynard Keynes said famously that not one person in a million understands the fundamental crime of central banking, the ability to print money-from-nothing that lies at its heart. Of course central banks have put up as many lines of defense as they can, including spreading the meme we have worked hard to defeat, that central banks owned by the nation-state itself are somehow less loathsome than the private kind. It is not so. Central banking and the concomitant printing of money from nothing is always ruinous (sooner or later) when blessed by law in any manner. The less law, therefore, the better.


Again, whether quasi private or fully public, central bankers remain a breed apart; their professional loyalties are to their own class; their banks are likely part of the larger mass reporting to the BIS (close to 100). It is useless to believe that central banking can be reformed. India and China both run their own central banks and more loathsome bureaucracies have seldom been seen. Inflation, too, in both countries is a problem.


There are no good central banks. There is only honest money – gold and silver – and PRIVATE banking (run privately by private individuals) with or without fractional reserve lending: money competition, in other words. What is necessary if EU citizens want the "austerity torture" to stop is for individuals to target central banks with peaceful protests.
Not private banks. Not commercial banks. Not savings banks.
CENTRAL BANKS! ...


Of course, we expect this proposal to generate complaints. The Brownians will complain that the wretched central banking concept can be properly utilized by the state itself, when there is no real historical record to prove it. Even Benjamin Franklin apparently admitted later in life that his various state-monopoly schemes for money would cause price inflation. This is surely true. Here is the law, and it is unassailable one:

EVERY MONEY MANIPULATION IS A PRICE FIX ...
EVERY PRICE FIX DISTORTS THE ECONOMY ...
EVERY CENTRAL BANK FIXES THE PRICE OF MONEY
AND EVENTUALLY BRINGS DOWN RUIN ON ALL!


There is no way round it. it is very simple. Laws and regulations are price fixes. Regulate money IN ANY WAY and you surely will distort the economy, creating first a terrible boom and then an even more horrible bust. Were the Greeks to target the central banking class – not the so-called bankers (private bankers) or those who facilitate the private sector – but CENTRAL BANKS AND THEIR APOLOGISTS, the EU crisis would deflate in an instant. It would not last for another word. Not a syllable. Not a vowel.


Yes, if central bankers in all their shiny garb were confronted on the way to work with the single salient fact that they print money from nothing, as much as they want of it, for themselves and their friends, all this palaver about austerity would cease. The moralizing would halt. A great silence would descend on the monetary chattering classes. They would have nothing to say. The correction would be profound.


Bar them peacefully from going to work within the vast buildings they have erected to worship worthless paper. Confront them instantly when they proclaim they are "inflation fighters" – as their ruinous fiat currency is the motor and engine of inflation. Correct them immediately when they begin to claim that printing an overabundance of money is of benefit to all. Chastise them responsibly. Reprove them logically. Instruct them firmly.


Let them know that the greatest scam of the past half-millennium is over. The people in their millions understand. Gold and silver must circulate again as honest money. Banks must be private entities, not responsible to the state. The state must have no more power over money. None. No more government debt (except perhaps what is absolutely "necessary.") Let the Invisible Hand provide for the industrious. Let private, local charities (so much more effective and targeted than corrupt, state-run public welfare) offer help to others as they need it. Churches and spiritual spaces of all kinds are historically useful in this regard.


Only private entities – merchants and tradesmen – can provide credit. Only private entities can offer warehouses for silver and gold and issue receipts that may be honored locally as money. Interest rates are to be set by the market, and if they fluctuate from region to region or town to town, so be it. But central banking must go. (Private clearinghouses can remain.)


Gather round peacefully to explain this fundamental point. Surround them in Starbucks as they purchase lattes. Explain it over and over, joyfully. Cease, also, to use fiat money. Campaign to remove legal tender laws.


Every time a central bank shuts its doors a rainbow shall appear and a flower bloom. Gradually a calm falls over the earth. Guns cease thunder. Fighting stops. Injuries heal. The blessed shall dwell in peace without inflations, depressions, faux-depreciations or devaluations. Money, at least, shall become honest.


Conclusion: Surround the great, granite temples of money printing and begin!

Replacing Strauss-Kahn; "Pro-bank bailout" Lagarde is a shoo in




By Mike Whitney

May 25, 2011 
"Information Clearing House



 French Finance Minster Christine Lagarde has emerged as the front-runner in the race to replace ex-IMF chief Dominique Strauss-Kahn. She is a champion swimmer, an accomplished attorney, and a competent bureaucrat. She's also a friend of Wall Street who will ferociously defend the interests of big capital. Research assistant for the far-right American Enterprise Institute Jurgen Reinhoudt notes that under "France's free-market oriented economics minister"..."the top income tax rate was cut and, in a frontal assault on the 35-hour workweek, overtime work for hourly workers was made tax-free." (Don't Give Up on Sarkozy Just Yet, AEI)

But Lagarde has not moved to the head of the pack due to her anti-worker bias alone, but because she's a trusted insider who will implement the IMF's privatization and structural adjustment programs without challenging their merit. Strauss-Kahn's promises of "reform" at the fund were a constant source of anxiety for big finance. Lagarde won't make that same mistake.  She won't go off the reservation, consort with progressives like Joseph Stiglitz, or veer from her script. Here's how The Guardian summed up Lagarde's impressive resume:

"Christine Lagarde stands for protecting big banks.....she's the most pro-bank bailout of the lot.

"The Americans are going to try and put in [White House adviser] David Lipton as number two. Lipton is Mr Bank Bailout. He worked for Citigroup. If they put in Lagarde and Lipton, what does that say? We are going with the total bank protection plan. That would be a disaster." ("IMF under growing pressure to appoint non-European head", The Guardian) http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2011/may/19/imf-pressure-appoint-non-european-head 

According to the New York Times Lagarde is not only a snappy dresser, but has plenty of friends in Washington and Wall Street. Here's an excerpt from the NYT:  

"Ms. Lagarde, the former head of the Chicago-based law firm Baker & McKenzie, lived in the United States for 25 years. Tall and stylish, with a shock of silver hair and a penchant for Chanel jackets, she is as connected and as respected in Washington and on Wall Street as in Europe." (A Favorite Emerges for Helm of I.M.F., New York Times)

Not surprisingly,  Lagarde supports weaker regulations so that banks and other financial institutions can continue to rake in windfall profits while increasing the risks to the broader economy. According to Reuters:

"I see the danger that too strict regulation at the center leads to a flight to the borderlands," Lagarde said in an article published in the Friday edition of German newspaper Handelsblatt." ("Too strict regulation risks flight", Reuters)

Lagarde has also taken a hardline approach to problems in Greece and rejects the idea of debt forgiveness or restructuring. She believes that bondholders and bankers must be repaid regardless of the costs to Greek workers who have suffered through 3 years of Depression, 18% unemployment, savage cutbacks in social services, massive privatization of public assets, and a debt-to-GDP ratio that gets worse every year the belt-tightening continues. Lagarde appears to believe that the people who blew up the financial system should be rewarded for their efforts. Here's an excerpt for the Wall Street Journal:

"French finance minister Christine Lagarde said late Monday, after a meeting with finance officials from the European Union, that a rescheduling or reprofiling of Greek debt is NOT an option..... Executing the planned austerity program, proper implementation of privatization, and commitments across the political spectrum in Greece are the key for a solution in Greece, Lagarde said." ("France's Lagarde: Option Of Rescheduling Greek Debt Not On Table", Wall Street Journal)

So the belt-tightening will intensify under Lagarde, which is a signal to bankers that she can be trusted to protect their interests, and all the talk about "soft restructuring" or reforms a la Strauss-Kahn will end.

There will be no more talk about replacing the dollar with SDRs (Special Drawing Rights) either. Lagarde is not going to rock the boat. The only reforms she'll be working on are "labor reforms", a familiar buzzword among the financial elite for union busting.

It's worth noting that the normally-subdued Lagarde could hardly contain herself when Bin Laden was assassinated. She even suggested that it might help to boost sales in the US. Here's the report from Reuters:

"French Finance Minister Christine Lagarde welcomed the killing of al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden and said his death could bolster consumer confidence and economic growth in the United States.

"The U.S. economy is like the American people. It reacts very quickly either positively or negatively," Lagarde told France 2 television. "I wouldn't be surprised if this event prompted a pick-up in confidence."  ("France sees U.S. economic lift from bin Laden death", Reuters)

  Of course, Lagarde's enthusiasm was not tempered by the fact that international law forbids targeted assassinations of non-state actors. After all, "real" leaders are never constrained by something as trivial as the law.

So, it looks like Wall Street may have found their replacement for the mercurial Strauss Kahn. There won't be any debt-restructuring, bondholders will be paid in full, and the dollar's dominant role as the world's reserve currency will go unchallenged.

Lagarde just announced her candidacy this morning (May 25), but already she's won the approval of Washington, Wall Street, the big banks, and the EU heads of state. She's a shoo in.



_______


Related:

New Acting Head of IMF – i.e., Strauss-Kahn’s Replacement – is Jewish, Too

Jewistan: Finally Recognizing Israel as the Jewish State

By 

May 25, 2011 
"Information Clearing House



 Israel’s Likudnik Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reached into his bag of Zionist tricks and pulled out a brand-new demand that had never surfaced before in the history of the Middle East Peace Process going all the way back to their beginning with the negotiation of the original Camp David Accords conducted under the personal auspices of U.S. President Jimmy Carter in 1978: The Palestinians must recognize Israel as “the Jewish State.” Not surprisingly, the Zionist controlled and funded Obama administration publicly endorsed this latest roadblock to peace that was maliciously constructed by Israel.

Netanyahu deliberately shifted the goal-posts on the Palestinians. It would be as if the United States of America demanded that Iran recognize it as the White Anglo-Saxon Protestant (WASP) State as a condition for negotiating and then concluding any comprehensive peace settlement with it. Of course such demands are racist and premeditated non-starters to begin with. 

Netanyahu’s racist ultimatum would lead to the denationalization of the 1.5 million Palestinians who are already less than third-class citizens of Israel and set the stage for their mass expulsion to the Palestinian Bantustan envisioned by Netanyahu as the “final solution” to Zionism’s “demographic problem” created by the very existence of the Palestinians. This racist and genocidal demand would also illegally terminate the well-recognized Right of Return for five million Palestinian refugees living around the world as required by U.N. General Assembly Resolution 194(III) of 1948, by the Universal Declaration of Human Rights Article 13(2) (1948), and by general principles of public international law, international humanitarian law, and human rights law. This would doom all prospects for peace between Israelis and Palestinians forever, and pave the way for the creation of “Greater Israel” dominating the entire former Mandate for Palestine, both of which objectives have been the intention of Netanyahu and Likud all along.

But if Netanyahu is really serious about Israel being recognized internationally as “the Jewish State” then there is a simple manner by which this universal diplomatic status can instantly be achieved unilaterally and without the consent of the Palestinians. Under basic principles of international law, every state is free to change its own name if it so desires: e.g., from Congo to Zaire then back to Congo. Therefore Israel is free to change its name to Jewistan -- the State of the Jews.

Thereafter every state in the world that has diplomatic relations and treaty relations with Israel will henceforth necessarily have to recognize it as Jewistan -- the State of Jews -- and deal with it as such by that name on a daily basis. The name of Jewistan would automatically replace the name of Israel in the United Nations System, at all other concerned international organizations, and on all bilateral and multilateral treaties to which Israel is currently a contracting party. Indeed, in the aftermath of its serial genocidal atrocities perpetrated against the Palestinians and the Lebanese, Israel has quite understandably been seeking to “re-brand” itself. Jewistan is Israel’s perfect new moniker.

In fact, Israel has never been anything but a Bantustan for Jews setup in the Middle East by the White racist and genocidal Western colonial imperial powers in order to serve as their racist attack dog and genocidal enforcer against the Arab and Muslim world. From the very moment of Western imperialism’s genocidal conception of Israel in 1947-1948, Israel has historically always functioned as Jewistan – the world’s Bantustan for the Jews. So Israel might as well finally change its name today to Jewistan, own up to its racist birthright, and make it official for the rest of the world to acknowledge.

Of course, all the Black Bantustans in racist criminal apartheid South Africa were eventually dismantled and no longer exist. The same will eventually happen to the racist criminal apartheid Jewish Bantustan in the Middle East no matter what name they call themselves. Actually, Jewistan/Israel is more closely analogous to the genocidal Yugoslavia that collapsed as a State, lost its U.N. membership, and no longer exists as a State for that precise reason.

In either event, when this Israeli Bantustan for Jews predictably collapses as a State, all the Palestinian refugees living in their Diaspora around the world will be able to return to their homes as guaranteed by Resolution 194. Such is the ultimate solution for securing the Palestinian Right of Return under International Law. In the meantime, the Palestinians should sign nothing with Jewistan/Israel and let this Bantustan for Jews collapse of its own racist and genocidal weight. Good riddance!

Professor Francis A. Boyle served as Legal Adviser to the Palestinian Delegation to the Middle East Peace Negotiations from 1991 to 1993. His newest book is “The Palestinian Right of Return under International Law” (Clarity Press: 2011).



________-


Related:

Netanyahu’s speech to Congress shows America will buy anything


We the Peoples of Ireland are being called upon to show our Patriotism and “share the pain” during this time of Recession. Sharing It With Who?

From Sovereign Independent:



By Paul O’Sullivan.
The current situation has been caused, they say, by the “Banking Crisis” But it has to be solved by us the Taxpayer. With our “Contributions” to N.A.M.A. which are so far are totalling €54 Billion that is an astounding sum for such a small Country, read the total again…. Fifty Four Thousand Million.
The following are just a short list of savage cuts and increased charges already initiated.
  • Social welfare payments.
  • Single parent payments.
  • Job seeker allowances.
  • Child Benefit.
  • Medical and Dental.
  • Rent Supplements.
  • Increases in Pharmacy Drugs Contributions.
  • Prescription Charges instituted.
  • Community “Child care”.
  • Students (College and University).
  • Primary and Secondary Schools.
  • Increases in Diesel, Petrol, Heating oil, Coal etc.
  • Increases in Income Tax.
The list is endless with more to come in the next Supplemental Budget.
Our “Elected” Leadership has said that they too will suffer the “Pain”.
Let’s look at a short list of the “Pain” they will endure.
Taoiseach (Prime Minister) Salary of – € 231.700.00. (Not including expenses and Pensions) He was receiving €285.582.00
Compared to the British Prime Minister’s Salary of – £133.000 and the German Chancellor’s at €192.000.
TD’s Salary cuts of 10%. They are still receiving €112.000 “basic” pay, excluding expenses and benefits (pensions).
“British Parliamentarians (TD’s) receive £65.738.”
To put the outlandish salaries paid to our Elected Leaders in some context consider this.
The population of Britain 65 Million.
The population of Germany 82 Million.
The population of Ireland is ONLY 4.5 Million!!
Tell me again who! Is feeling the “Pain”
A look at a list of the Salaries that are being paid by us, to the Elite of our Indebted Financial Institutions.
C.E.O. Bank of Ireland is paid €2.000.000 plus. (Two million) plus perks
Chief of Anglo Irish is paid €916.000 add to a Bonus of 850.000.plus perks
Head of Allied Irish is paid €427.000.plus perks.
“Patriotism, the last vestige of a scoundrel”

Jim Willie: Green Shoots, Exit Strategy, No QE3


From Goldseek, Wednesday, 25 May 2011 | Share this article 
By: Jim Willie CB, GoldenJackass.com



It is not clear whether the American financial community has the ability to observe and conclude that the US Federal Reserve is adrift and relies upon deception as policy in revealing its directions. Its position is to hold steady, inflate to oblivion, support financial markets in heavy volume secretly, and lie about leaving its trapped policy corner. The USFed is a propaganda machine that deals with ruses as a substitute for transparent policy discussion in the public forum. Two years ago the ruse disseminated widely was the Green Shoots of an economic recovery that had no basis at all. The scorched earth showed more evidence of ruin than fresh business creation, at a time when the grotesque insolvency was spreading like a disease throughout the entire US financial system. On one hand the USFed was busy operating numerous credit and liquidity facilities in order to prevent systemic seizure, busily redeeming the Wall Street toxic bonds at the highest possible prices. On the other hand they were talking about Green Shoots, as insolvency spread across the big banks to the household equity. They lost their credibility in the process. They have lost it completely after two full years of 0% rates, the ultimate in central bank shame. The Jackass dismissed the Green Shoots ploy quickly, regularly, and correctly, as whatever little shoots were present probably the handiwork of ant colonies or termite hills, mistaking green insect feces, or even some toxic green runoff from a nearby financial office of a corporation.

One year ago the ruse disseminated widely was the Exit Strategy from the 0% monetary corner that had no basis at all. The USFed was well aware that 0% as an official rate was untenable, dangerous, and would produce different maladies. They promoted a phony story of a Jobless Recovery, an utter contradiction and bad joke played upon the American workers. To make the cost of money free encourages speculation in the most general systemic sense. The primary gold market fuel is the price of money being far below the current price inflation rate. Anyone who believes the CPI is actually 2% to 3% is braindead. Even USGovt statistics list the numerous categories with strong price increases, yet the overall CPI is lower than all components. Power to adjustments. My description has been that the USFed is stuck in the 0% policy corner. The corner has been described since the start of 2009 when it was instituted. If the USFed raises rates, they torpedo the housing market left as derelict adrift at sea, listing badly, taking on more water, weighed down by the inventory burden. Given that the USEconomy was so dependent upon housing for three or four years, and that dependence has turned to deep vulnerability, they cannot hike interest rates and exit the policy corner without sending home prices into a fast acceleration downward. They will bottom out 20% to 30% below construction costs.

Worse, a rate hike would trigger a credit derivative series of explosions from the Interest Rate Swaps. These queer devices hold down long-term rates far below the prevailing price inflation level. That is why the USFed Chairman Bernanke insists of an undying focus of the inflation expectations, the USTreasury Bond yields and TIPS yields (both of which they purchase in monetization operations). They control them using IRSwaps. If the USFed holds steady, as they must, they generate significant rising costs for everything from food to energy to metals to cotton. Even scraps (paper, metal, plastics) are rising in price. Even the toys sector must contend with fast rising prices in time for the Christmas season. See the Li & Fund effect, also called Foxconn in China. They also make i-Pods. The current path lifts the cost structure to such a level that both businesses and households are experiencing a pinch. The fast collapse of the Philly Fed index is testament to the pinch. Shelves at major retail chains are experiencing a slow decline in volume. It is called the profit squeeze. Business profit margins are shrinking, even as household discretionary spending funds are shrinking. The Jackass dismissed the Exit Strategy ploy quickly, regularly, and correctly, as the monetary policy corner was described consistently and clearly. It was a bluff, but a very bad one. It served as a litmus test to divide the financial analysts into two camps, the dumkopfs and the sage. The dumb analysts fell for it, based upon an idealistic belief that the 0% policy should end and the recovery was happening slowly. The savvy analysts did not fall for it, since the consequences of ending the 0% rate would be like suffocating your children in the middle of the night.

THE BIG RUSE & THE BIG BIND
The USFed is caught in a gigantic bind, cannot raise rates, and must endure the global price inflation problem that festers on the cost side of the equation. They busily deny their role in producing price inflation from debt monetization coupled with 0% rates. They lost more credibility in the process. They are the object of global anger and ridicule. They must hope that the eventual rate hike will keep the speculative juices from overflowing. Gold & Silver do not rest, as they brush aside such a plain ruse of a threatened rate hike. The sovereign bond situation in the entire Western World (with Japan adopted into the fold) is horrendous and worsening. The government deficits are out of control. Few analysts prefer to point out how the foundation for the global monetary system is supported by the gaggle of crippled sovereign bonds. To be sure, the Southern Europe debt is in a ruined state. But the debt of the United States is no better and the same for England, when viewed as annual debt ratio to total budget, when viewed as cumulative debt ratio to GDP (economic size). The graph below shows those two dimensions, and how the United States and United Kingdom are positioned among Spain, Ireland, and Greece, apart from the mass of nations. In the full year since this graph was produced, the US debt situation has grown worse. The reckless socialists seem prudent.


The extended PIIGS pen of nations, fully ruined and recognized widely as ruined, do not have the tools to prevent rising bond yields. They uniformly rise versus the German Bund benchmark. Their differentiation actually permits the Euro currency to trade more freely, even to rise. The Chinese were responsible for much of the Euro rise from 130 to 150, as they dumped USTBonds in favor of discounted PIGS debt, later to be converted into shopping malls, commercial buildings, and factories. Somehow, that factor did not appear on the US news networks. The USGovt has tools, wondrous electronic tools, which enable them at zero cost to fight off the barbarians at the gate. It is the Printing Pre$$. Unfortunately, its backfire is a powerful rising cost structure that has shown visibly in the high food & gasoline costs. So hardly at zero cost!! A year ago, the USFed folded like a cheap lawn chair. Instead of exiting their 0% corner, and implementing the advertised Exit Strategy, they went one step deeper down the rathole. That was exactly the Jackass forecast, QE to follow 0% stuck. They combined the ZIRP with the QE. They added the debt monetization scourge of Quantitative Easing to the already reckless no cost money of the Zero Interest Rate Policy. So they doused the national economy with gasoline only to see it lit into flames, while cutting the legs off the burning victim trying to escape.

PURE QE3 DECEPTION
The current ruse disseminated widely is the End of QE2 and no continuation of Quantitative Easing (aka debt monetization). The ruse has no basis at all in reality. The USFed would have to find buyers for the USTreasury Bonds. They have been buying 75% to 80% of USTBonds since the end of 2010. They have been supporting the US housing market by purchasing mortgage bonds. In other words, they have been preventing the more complete implosion of the mortgage market. It is one thing for the USTBond to go No Bid. The USFed has the direct responsibility to cover that up quickly and proclaim every USTreasury auction a rip-roaring success with great 2.3 bid to cover ratio. But it is another matter altogether to permit the mortgage rates to fly upward from lack of bids. If mortgage rates move to 7% or the adjustable ARM mortgages reset 3% to 4% higher suddenly, then housing prices will descend by another 10% to 15% quickly, as in with lightning speed.

Of course the USFed will have a QE3. Of course the USFed will continue QE programs. Of course the USFed will keep the funny money flowing into every type of bond market except the Municipal Bonds. The munis are not part of Wall Street and the syndicate that sprawls to cover the USGovt itself. So as the states and municipalities go further into a ruinous condition, events work within their grand plan to consolidate power in New York City, whose satellite in WashingtonDC was captured on a somber September day in 2001. The agenda for munis is so simple. They wish to kill the worker pensions, so that government workers have none, just like the general population. No home equity, no upward labor mobility, no union power, no pensions, a perfect world for the elite domination. Of course the USFed will keep pumping money into the stock market. With all the flash trading, still over 70% of all NYSE trade volume, with all the hardly hidden activity to support stocks by the Working Group for Financial Markets (aka Plunge Protection Team), the vulnerable stock market would dive like a cement rock. Perhaps the USFed wants to see the S&P500 and Dow Industrial stock indexes take a frightening dive. That would produce buyers of USTBonds, a point that the financial networks consistently fail to notice as motive for withdrawal of liquidity funds. The USFed can generate a USTBond rally easily, simply by stopping the stock support that so often lifts the stock indexes in the nick of time for late afternoon rallies, and johnny on the spot before early morning setbacks render too much damage.

Clearly, a sudden recognized slide in all things financial within the controlled US arenas would create perfect political cover for the USFed to announce QE3. The objections lodged from global creditors would be shouted down on the USCongress floors, on the New York Stock Exchange floor, in the big US bank board rooms, and the mutual fund chart rooms. The households would be torn in two opposite directions. They citizens want support for their stock accounts that include pension funds. But they do not want even higher costs for food, energy, and everything they purchase in retail centers. Strangely, perversely, the US stock market indexes are inversely correlated to the USDollar. The currency must resume its decline in order to lift the US stock market. Obviously, the S&P500 index rise is offset by lower US$ purchasing power, but the dynamic is ignored as much as possible. The correlation seems about minus 60% to 65% in a rough eye view.


The USFed will next spread fear from financial market powerful downdrafts. They will assure stock market declines. They will invite public response to lost mutual fund and pension funds (both managed and personal). They will work to shake the masses down to the point that the USCongress begs them to return to a strong powerful QE3. They will urge the USFed to make the QE3 even broader, to include Municipal Bonds. The big US banks will push the USFed to cover their mortgage bonds that are exposed to Put-Backs. The defrauded bond investors have won a skein of court cases. The story is so old that the US press does not cover court rulings against the devious MERS device. So the banks are losing from the bond table and losing from the foreclosure table. The US Federal Court in Texas found that MERS failed to address the issue of the legal effect of an assignment executed by unauthorized signers. The court also rebuked MERS, noting that the signing officer had no such authority, something that MERS should know. The court pointed out far more than mere negligence by MERS. Over 20,000 robo-signers were busy in the foreclosure process. They were not properly authorized. See the Naked Capitalism article (CLICK HERE). Home foreclosures are being reversed by the courts. Bonds are being ordered for putback to the Wall Street issuers. Exposure to the big US banks is huge, like well over $1 trillion. The USFed will be asked to lap up the toxic swill on court room floors.

GLOBAL QE
The very same factors that forced the emergency G-7 meeting to cap the Japanese Yen currency rise have returned. A high Yen exchange rate renders their vast supply industry as unprofitable, imposing great strain. Expect another emergency meeting, which in my view should be described as a Global Quantitative Easing (Global QE) since the major central banks will coordinate their actions to buy the vast tranches of USTreasury Bonds that Japan needs to sell. The large Japanese financial institutions must close their finance gaps and avoid price inflation. Doing so without asset sales would cause a pure unfiltered inflationary effect. They do not want additional woes in addition to what grotesque strain has already come. The exercise will be repeated, as the Jackass forecasted a month ago. My forecast is for a secret G-7 Meeting to agree to USTBond purchases to push down the Yen currency, but without any publicity, zero press coverage, all in total secrecy. It is a development factor far bigger than any QE conducted solely by the USFed. Since coordinated the world over,call it Global QE. Look for some distortion of purpose for any suddenly convened meeting of finance ministers. They might call it coordinated global monetary planning, or cooperation with emerging economies, or adjustments to global trade settlements, or some such deception. It is just another side to the Competing Currency Wars. The underlying force behind the rising Yen is their industrial slowdown, the arrival of a trade deficit, and the urgent need to finance reconstruction costs by foreign asset sales without causing price inflation. My analysis has called it the Global QE initiative, a factor far bigger than any QE conducted by the USFed.

Insurance companies will play a surprisingly large role. They face mammoth claims from damaged buildings and stalled factories. The large Japanese financial institutions must close their finance gaps and avoid price inflation from pure monetary inflation. Foreign asset sale is the key. Their deficit is growing, industry faltering, electricity supply spotty, supply chain unreliable, and US bond sales rising. The reconstruction is underway. The financial markets still need help. Their economy faces an unprecedented slowdown more accurately called a general coordinated breakdown. As the nation must pay for its reconstruction, expect big waves of bond sales to match big stimulus and monetization. Foreign asset sales will be the compromise made politically. Although palatable, they will cause the JapYen currency to rise further, enough to sound alarms and cause even more profit squeeze.

The Japanese Economy is enduring the biggest collapse in modern history. Let's see if its cities can avoid cracks and rising tides. Their trade deficits are assured, my forecast. However, this time around a paradox of trade deficits and reconstruction costs will conspire to LIFT the Japanese Yen currency. Their government wants to limit stimulus and associated deficits and bond issuance that would lift interest rates. Their ministry officials want more debt monetization to inflate the problem away. The Bank of Japan wants to hold the line with no more purchase of debt. The utilities are forcing rolling electrical blackouts in order to avoid higher prices for electricity. Their carmakers have registered staggering declines in output. Their industrial sector is reeling. The solution most politically appealing will turn out to be not the hyper inflation from debt monetization, BUT RATHER SALES OF FOREIGN ASSETS. The sale of USTreasury Bonds is most politically acceptable, with a national disaster offering strong cover for justification. Their sale will be brisk in heavy volume, all in time. The rising JapYen currency will force the Global QE, as purchase of USTBonds that Japan sells will join the USTBonds sold by the USDept Treasury. An extravaganza of debt monetization will go global. Why no analysts discuss this is beyond the reach of Jackass comprehension. Probably blind spots, corporate directives, preoccupation with the sovereign debts, attention to the USGovt debt limit, and a new foreign war every few months. To be sure, plenty of distraction out there.

THREAT OF USGOVT DEBT DEFAULT
The cynic among us might have suspected that a mission directive for the Obama Admin was to force spending increases, to avoid entitlement benefit cuts, and to generally lead the nation into a worse insolvency condition so that the USDollar declines dangerously and a USGovt debt default is assured. The nation could start over. The elite plans could be implemented on a global level. To be sure, the Republicans object and block any and all new tax increases that would supposedly raise revenues. They would be counter-productive anyway, since higher tax rates result in lower tax revenues, something the legislators and economists have failed to comprehend for four decades. To be sure, the Democrats object and block any and all limitations to entitlement spending like Social Security, Medicare, and USGovt pensions. Any reductions would close the deficit a little, but more like a pittance. To be sure, the security agencies and bankers object and block any and all attempts to curtail the wars to seize crude oil and establish the vertical integration of contraband. Their purpose is considered sacred, while their costs are covered by taxpayers, but their profits are solely for the syndicate. The defense contractors are exemplary employers too, with high paying jobs but no trickle down effect on the product side.

It seems all three camps are dedicated to a path that results in debt strain, creditor revolt, and eventual default. Recall the Jackass forecast in September 2008, of a USTreasury debt default in the next two to three years. The time has finally come to deal with such a threat. The argument that the USDept Treasury together with the US Federal Reserve could avoid such a default outcome is being tested. For almost a full year, the USFed has been monetizing mountains of USGovt debt and much of the USAgency Mortgage debt. The effects have been noticed palpably at a global level. The blame has been attributed by nations across the world, and directed squarely at the USFed and USGovt for profligate spending, enormous deficits, and a hyper inflation reaction. All parties involved in the budget deliberations, the debt limit discussions, and the protection of interests are willing to test the default button option. The denials go so far as to describe a less than onerous outcome where much of the interest payments would continue, and much of the agency functions would continue. Strangely, the soldiers pay checks might be scrubbed. If a default occurs, traps doors and greased chutes would open to lead the nation on a fast track to the Third World.To begin with, liquidity would be harmed to such an extent that the Saudis would probably not accept USDollars for crude oil.

David Stockman served as the Budget Director in the Reagan Admin. He had some choice words in summary. He said, "The real problem is the de-facto policy of both parties is default. When the Republicans say no tax increases, they are saying we want the US government to default. Because there is not enough political will in this country to solve the problem even halfway on spending cuts. When the Democrats say you cannot touch Social Security, when you have Obama sponsoring a war budget for defense that is even bigger than Bush, then I say the policy of the White House is default as well. That is the question that really needs to be understood better and appraised by the bond market. Both parties are advocating default even as they point the finger at each other."

NEW HAT TRICK LETTER REPORT
The Hat Trick Letter made a key change in the May reports. Since most every major systemic failure forecast recorded, explained, and repeated since 2004 has come true, and the USEconomy is in deterioration with a squeeze underway, and the US financial system is insolvent, and the US Housing market also suffers widespread negative equity (28.4% of homes), no great need or interest is served in delineating the home foreclosure statistics, the personal bankruptcies, bloated bank hidden inventory of unsold homes, the wrecked mortgage bond market, the jobless claims that cannot revive, or the banker games to conceal the reason why they lend little. Items do appear in the Introduction sections. Instead, the Macro Economic Report for the Hat Trick Letter has given way to the Global Money War Report for full discussion and analysis of the Competing Currency Wars, the debt soaked tattered sovereign bonds, the crumbling monetary system, the discredited central banks, and the acceptance of hyper monetary inflation as a solution.The Gold & Currency Report will continue, which covers the details at the ground level with many stories on investment demand, on exchange traded fund frauds (good and bad), on certain economic stories in beleaguered nations like Japan and Spain, like threats of default in nations like Greece, soon to be followed by other PIIGS nations, and details on the Chinese Economy.

So the Hat Trick Letter has adapted with a higher level gold report to cover the monetary war in progress, and a lower level gold report to cover the global reaction geared toward survival. That survival is assured by investment in Gold & Silver. The ugly irony is that the major financial news networks comprehend little if anything about the motives and principal factors behind the powerful precious metals bull market. They only focus on inflation (which they deny as part of the propaganda machine) and geopolitical tensions (which are valid but secondary). They overlook that the global monetary system is in ruins and the central banks have morphed into hyper inflation nuclear reactors, with the cost of money at zero acting like a foot stuck on the accelerator. They do not properly assess the monetary system ruin, nor the bank insolvency ruin.

GLOBAL FACTORS
The global monetary war has mushroomed. Greece is set to default on its debt, the signs all loud & clear. Spain is ready to be bailed out, its economy sliding backwards fast. The impact of a default in Europe is magnificent and all horrendous. Banks will fail. The motive for continued band-aid bailouts that only buy time and fix nothing have been to enable banks to redeem their debt, just like in the United States. Bond holders have been protected. Dominique Strauss-Kahn urged Irish Govt bond holders to take a significant haircut loss, his final sin. The first sin was the promotion of the SDR from the Intl Monetary Fund, whose basket of currencies would be used in global bank reserves. His second sin was the introductory concept of an SDR-based debt instrument, as in a global bond. To supplant the USDollar and USTBond is cause for removal, with bond holder losses the icing on the prison cake. The European kettle is ready to boil over again, with nothing fixed. The wild card is the Credit Default Swaps, those curious devices that lurk within hidden banking systems. A Greek Govt default would set events in motion, and likely reveal the profound fraud and insolvency of European banks. The kicker could be the contagion to the British and American banks. The Western banks are all interwoven in a grand incest.

A recent twist is the higher wages paid to Chinese workers almost uniformly. They will become stronger consumers, but their corporate exporters will pass along higher prices to the US retail chains. Finally, after thirty years, the USEconomy will import price inflation from Asia. The new Shanghai silver futures contracts are most likely not welcome to the COMEX and its Wall Street overseers. The common practice of ambushing the Gold & Silver prices overnight or immediately after hours in the late afternoon might soon come to an end. The Shanghai hours are 8pm to 11am eastern US time zone. Sense the opposition. Given the strong Chinese consumer price inflation and corresponding citizen response in coin and bar purchase, the opposition is gaining strength. The Asians love gold as much as the Americans are ignorant of it.

The population has reacted with continued Gold & Silver coin purchase. The central banks outside the Western sphere of influence have reacted with Gold bullion accumulation in reserves, far more than publicly announced. Mexico not only purchased almost 100 metric tons of gold recently, but their CB governors voted unanimously to install silver as money itself. The investment community has reacted with legitimate exchange traded funds like the Sprott Fund. The contrast of a Sprott premium in price versus the negative premium in the GLD and SLV should highlight their absence of required metal in inventory in stark contrast to the ample inventory in the Sprott funds, but most analysts have yet to figure out the premium issue at all. The biggest and most tainted ETFunds are working toward their own climax, surely with cash redemption amidst lawsuits. They cannot offer their inventory and shares to the COMEX as part of the great game, without eventual consequence. When the premium on GLD and SLV hits minus 10%, perhaps some will awaken. Usually vault fees, insurance costs, security costs, transport costs, and management results in actual totals that must be covered within the price paid for the shares. But not with this pair of polluted funds joined to the cartel.

ONLY CHANGE WITH SILVER IS PRICE
The silver speculation is just another deceptive story. The Open Interest fell gradually all through the Silver price rise toward the $50 level. After such a bone crushing silver ambush, the net positions for non-commercials, substracting shorts from longs, showed relative tranquility with no big decline at all in their positions, thus still a bullish commitment. They have fewer positions, but the game is still very much on. Hedge funds do show the lowest net long silver position since February 2010, but still a solid position. Evidence lies inside the Commitment of Traders Report, discussed in more detail in the May Hat Trick Letter. The Managed Money (like hedge funds, commodity trading accounts) still have a strong bullish position. They profited from the rise as they reduced positions, and were not wounded by the rise!! Then take the little guys. The Small Trader ledger item recorded the largest pure short position since August, with 18,605 contracts short silver on 26 April 2011, when silver had a $45.45 price. The smaller players were actually net short, and collected a hefty profit, a story not told by the lapdog US press. Conclude that many of the small guys, the good guys, were correctly positioned for the harsh smackdown on silver in the first week of May. The small speculators profited from decline!! They and the fund managers will be back, bigger than before, bolder than ever, motivated with fervor, with their ears taped back ready for more blood. It seems abundantly clear that the major driving force behind this current silver market has been actual demand for physical silver metal.


The beauty of the silver decline is that when it reverses, there is no technical resistance of significance back to the $50 level. However, due to the shock effect, the climb will be slower than a sudden technical mirror image reversal. The precious metals investors should hope for a slow steady relentless painful nasty stubborn awesome devastating rise in price that doles out excruciating pain to the cartel, permits once again for the less enlightened doubters to cover their wrong short positions in a chronic manner. The story in the Silver chart has four weeks and four different stories. The first week of May had the powerful decline, the result of hitting the Hunt nominal target, Soros putting out his deceptive story of selling that which he called a bubble for a full year, the COMEX raising the margin requirement five times in quick succession, the USFed putting out its deceptive story about ending debt monetization and maybe hiking rates (gotta be dumb as a post to believe), the USEconomy demanding less in commodities. The second week showed a strong clear Doji Star, which epitomizes a move to stability. The Silver price found its footing and stood still, encouraging many investors to re-enter the market. The third week was less clear except to technical chart readers. It featured a strong clear Bull Hammer identified by an open and close at the high for the week, with price movement lower during the week. The hint was given on Monday of this week for a rebound. The US$ DX index was rising a little, as the Euro currency was sliding lower, like over 100 basis points for the day. Gold & Silver ignored it. Gold rose a little, while Silver was even at $35. Today, Silver is pushing $38 per ounce, and Gold is rising too. No resistance ahead!!

Yet the Mississippi flood waters will crimp supply lines just when the US financial dons wish to push down the entire commodity price structure, including Gold & Silver. Neither precious metal is a commodity though, since they are money. Tell the central banks of the world and the major sovereign wealth funds that Gold & Silver are commodities when they are shifting reserve assets away from the US$-based bonds and toward Gold & Silver. They are money, and the USGovt with their Wall Street handlers wishes the world not to regard them as money. The experiment in paper fiat money since 1971 is coming to an end, a conclusion racked with toxic spew, great hardship, and threats to wealth.

One should constantly remember that no solution to the financial crisis has been installed, nothing fixed, no big banks liquidated, no end to monetary inflation, no end to outsized USGovt deficits, no end to secretive subterranean support of stocks and bonds, no revival of the housing market, no discharge of big bank home inventory, no return of US industry from Asia, no interruption to the endless costly wars, no end to money laundering of narco funds to Wall Street banks, no end to the propaganda obediently pumped out by the US press & media networks, and no change of Goldman Sachs running the USGovt finance ministry. Expect no change in anything that you believe in. Expect no change to the 0% policy (ZIRP) with no change to the heavy monetary inflation (QE), as the path to ruin is set, and the policy of Inflate to Infinity cannot be stopped. Gold will not stop until it surpasses at least $5000 to $7000 in price. Silver will not stop until it surpasses at least $150 to $200 in price. Such forecasts invite mockery, but in two years they will seem prescient.

The ruin of money is the momentum play. The elite are fully invested in the current system, and are fully willing to put more money into reinforcements to preserve their wealth, power, and position. The global financial system is coming apart at the seams, and the financial guardians in charge from the syndicate cannot any longer hold it together. The Gold & Silver prices are the hint of lost control. Expect breathtaking grand upward moves in price in the  next several months. It will be fun to watch the dim bulbs explain their positions after their wrong viewpoints have been so well covered by the financial rags. They will surely squirm, guys like Soros. Some will gloat, guys like Sprott. Few are aware, but the events in the first week of May are what a COMEX default looks like, in its preliminary phase!!! JPMorgan could not meet the schedule of May silver deliveries, that simple. In time, the distance between paper Gold & Silver and physical Gold & Silver will be great. Then the COMEX shuts down, unless they act as a Cash & Carry exchange. Doubtful!

THE HAT TRICK LETTER PROFITS IN THE CURRENT CRISIS.

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-- Posted Wednesday, 25 May 2011 | Digg This Article | Source: GoldSeek.com

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Protect Your ASSets: Buy Gold or Silver NOW - If you wait you will be late.
(He who panics first, just may salvage something.