by Charles A. Smith
EuroIntelligence says:
The best comment this morning on the impact of this operation came from Mark Schieritz, [Translated From German] who gives a downbeat/realistic assessment. He says the liquidity shower will have a marginally positive impact on the banking sector, in the sense that it reduces the probability of a liquidity squeeze. It probably prevents a massive liquidity crunch (read: Bank run), but it is unlikely to lead to more private sector credit. He also dismissed the backdoor theory – that banks would now use the money to buy government bonds. One reason for their caution is that future stress tests might require a corresponding increase of core-tier one capital to back such purchases. Schrieritz concludes that most of the money will end up with the ECB.
Of course it will. It will never get lent out. Haven’t the monetary "authorities" in Europe been watching what has gone on in the U.S. for the past 3 years? These “refinancings” are nothing more than the (panicked) banks dumping their very worst collateral on the ECB to cover immediate withdrawals/maturities. And these withdrawals/maturities willkeep on coming! And if they run out of pledgeable collateral, no worries. They simply issue new bonds, get a government guarantee on those bonds, and then post them as collateral for cash at the ECB. Italian banks issued 40 billion euros worth of such bonds yesterday! There’s a very vulgar term for this sort of behavior…”circle jerk”.
The U.S. Federal Reserve lent over $300 billion in 3-year financing to the major U.S. banks in late 2008. But the Fed didn’t have to cloak it all in a crazy web of circular transactions to obfuscate the fact that it was monetizing bad debts, as the ECB is doing. The Fed just gave the banks the cash, and they’ve kept it!
Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.


