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May 11, 2012

Now Cometh the Eurozone 'Recession' ...

From The Daily BellFriday, May 11, 2012 – by Staff Report


 
EU predicts 0.3 per cent eurozone economic contraction in 2012, says bloc in 'mild recession' ... The European Union estimates that the economy of the 17 countries that use the euro is in recession in the wake of a debt crisis that has prompted savage spending cuts and a jump in unemployment to record highs. The European Commission, the executive arm of the EU, forecasts that the eurozone economy will contract by 0.3 per cent in 2012 and grow by 1 per cent next year. Its prediction for 2012 is far weaker than the one it gave last November, when it predicted growth of 0.5 per cent. A year ago it was predicting growth of 1.8 per cent. Friday's forecasts provide clear evidence of the impact of Europe's debt crisis on the eurozone economy over the past year as governments have struggled to introduce deficit-reduction measures and business and consumer confidence has taken a dive. Olli Rehn, the EU's monetary affairs chief, said the recession is likely to be "mild" and "short-lived." – AP


Dominant Social Theme: The euro is done but we shall stagger on ...


Free-Market Analysis: If the Eurozone is not to be condensed and held, then by God, let loose the hounds of Hell. That would seem to be the next step in the European Union saga.
There was, of course, never any real need for such a union. From what we can tell both World Wars One and Two were at least partially concocted under phony pretences to help usher in world government.
We've taken to calling this sort of thing "directed history."


It's a very controversial perspective, of course, but it's one we don't apologize for. What we call the Internet Reformation has provided an in-depth perspective about how the top power elites intend to create their apparent goal, which is world government.


The idea that the world needs more "centralization" is actually a very dangerous one. The world needs less government, not more. It needs less financial manipulation, less war, less bureaucracy.
It needs more freedom and individual action. But the top elites that run the world's central banks have a different idea. They want to build world government and are constantly trying to centralize large globalist entities.
They use dominant social themes to frighten middle classes into giving up power and control to the internationalist facilities they've created.


But as these facilities begin to founder and fail, the elites turn to their toolbox for tried-and-true mechanisms of control of the broadest and plainest type: chaos, war and authoritarianism.
When it comes to the EU itself, we'd predict that those in charge of the monetary aspects of the EU will continue a kind of "takedown."


We've pretty much stopped believing the crisis was a surprise to those at the very top. They want such a crisis and – as it has not yet resulted in a collective surrender to their will – things will likely have to get much worse before they get better.
We're on record along with others about what may well happen.
We don't think the US is anywhere near a recovery and neither is the EU. There's a big anti-fiat business cycle going on at the moment. It's a gold and silver cycle, and it's nowhere near completed.
We believe (and have written) the next big problem will have to do with an Argentine devaluation that will take out most of South America.


As the Americas slide toward economic difficulties, the BRICs themselves shall weaken as well. Brazil, India, China and Russia shall be the last to go. When they are gone, however, the world will be in a general depression.
Out of this depression, chaos (and ultimately war?). The elites may try to build a new era of global governance.
Of course, we're not so sure this strategy is a winning one in the Internet era where people are increasingly angry about the larger manipulations of their lives and times – and apt not to tolerate it so easily.
We're not so sure therefore that increased globalism is a given, at least not as a successful outcome.
As for individuals worried about what may happen in the near future, those solutions seem obvious ...
Keep close to your family and friends.
Create an environment where you have access to food and water (outside of metropolitan areas and supermarkets).
Buy some gold and silver.
Buy a gun.
Try to ensure an independent energy supply and potable water.
These are simple enough goals, but hopefully they will ease your mind. They can put you back in control when you begin to feel the world is spinning away.
Take moderate precautions – and then go live your life! You can still invest in promising companies, can still take vacations, can still do all you've been doing.


Conclusion: Just don't disregard the larger picture. That's important to.
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Related:

The Euro Is Finished? And What Comes Next? ...

It's Simply Too Late For Germany To Save The Euro


Germany Protest Angela Merkel Euro


Despite belated gestures from Berlin, the single currency cannot survive if and when Greece leaves it.
Greece’s motorcycling Marxist, Alexis Tsipras, makes an unlikely champion, with his commuter leathers and largely unrealistic Left-wing views, but he seems to be about the best of a bad bunch right now. As far as I can see, he’s the only member of the Greek political class who makes any kind of sense, albeit only marginally so and with one rather important deficiency.
Rightly, he’s rejected Berlin’s austerity programme as “barbaric” and counter-productive (though, incongruously, he rides to parliament on a German-made BMW), but he’s not yet managed to reconcile himself to the logical corollary of this analysis – that Greece must take back control of its own destiny by leaving the euro. As it is, the economy is condemned only to permanent depression.
Youth unemployment in Greece was yesterday revealed to have overtaken even that of Spain, at an almost unbelievable 53.8 per cent. This for an economy which, if it sticks to the programme, has a further 150,000 public sector jobs still to shed. Those who think that, with the requisite degree of structural reform, the private sector will automatically move in and fill the gap can forget it.
The banking system is insolvent, credit is plummeting, the flight of capital continues unabated and businesses are going bust in record numbers. As long as Greece remains in the euro, there is no plausible path back to growth.
With François Hollande now elected in France, Mr Tsipras seems to believe there’s a wind of change blowing through Europe that promises to sweep away the old austerity and replace it with a new era of fiscal expansionism. He hopes for a kinder, more considerate eurozone that will allow Greece both to escape austerity and stay within the single currency. In pitiful defence of their European credentials, Greeks cling to the dream of the euro, but vote for parties that repudiate the conditions attached to its membership.
Cynically, Greece also plays the same old card to win concessions which it has used since the onset of the crisis nearly three years ago – keep supporting us, or the chaos caused by disorderly default and exit will bring you all down.
These threats may well have some validity, but there are only so many times Greece can call Berlin’s bluff, and I fear they’ve all been used up. Germany is now fully reconciled to a Greek exit. Wrongly, I suspect, it also believes the rest of the eurozone is now sufficiently well prepared to weather the consequent financial maelstrom.
In fact, this would only be the case if the escapees were confined to Greece, which is most unlikely. Once one country decides to redenominate as a sovereign currency, the contagion would be impossible to contain. The already extreme capital flight from other afflicted nations would intensify until it broke the single currency beyond redemption.
With this in mind, even Germany has begun to shift its message in recent days. Wolfgang Schäuble, the German finance minister, actually showed some sign of understanding what the euro crisis was all about last weekend, when he suggested it might be a good idea for Germany to experience a little wage inflation in the interests of stimulating domestic demand and helping to resolve imbalances. This seeming heresy has since been repeated by the Bundesbank, which has signalled it might be prepared to accept higher inflation in Germany as a way of boosting the competitiveness of those countries worst hit by the debt crisis.
Could it be that Mr Tsipras, cheered by the socialist presidential victory in France, is actually on to something in believing he can defy the terms of the bail-out and still remain in the euro?
Throughout the crisis, Germany has in truth been more accommodating than it seems in trying to hold together this French-inspired, economic folie de grandeur. It’s agreed to prop the region up with bail-outs, and it has put hundreds of billions of its own surplus savings on the line by providing the periphery banking system with the liquidity it requires to stay afloat. Now its policymakers seem to suggest they are even prepared to make Germany a little less competitive so that the afflicted nations can become more so. It’s certainly a step in the right direction, but it is also too little, too late.
If such an approach had been applied two years ago, it might have helped, but the scale of the internal adjustments needed in the deficit nations to regain competitiveness is just too big now to be cured by small increases in German demand. The die has been cast. Besides, it’s not at all clear Germany really means it.
Berlin hosts Mr Hollande next week. Thus, the sudden outbreak of growth-friendly rhetoric is in all probability more about diplomacy than hard intentions, or about building bridges with a man who in opposition was seen as a threat to the traditional Franco-German relationship. That Germany is prepared to engineer the rip-roaring boom necessary to pull the periphery out of depression seems somewhat improbable. Like the promise of a growth compact to supplement the austerity of the fiscal one, it’s all just words.
Don’t get me wrong. Europe desperately needs structural and labour market reform to make it more competitive, and for some countries to root out institutionalised tax evasion and corruption. Devaluation cannot in itself provide a long-term fix – many other things need to happen too. But it does at least promise a new beginning, which the present axis of despair does not.



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Related:

Vacations From Reality


Insolvency Day in Spain

If Spain’s Problems Are Solved… Why Are They Putting Together “Plan B”?

Interview with Michael Hudson on learning from the eurocrisis


What American can learn from the Eurocrisis

Read the transcript at Michael Hudson
Learning from the Eurocrisis
by Michael Hudson

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Protect Your ASSets: Buy Gold or Silver NOW - If you wait you will be late.
(He who panics first, just may salvage something.