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May 31, 2012

Bitcoin: The Cryptoanarchists’ Answer to Cash


From Spectrum
By MORGEN E. PECK  /  JUNE 2012
How Bitcoin brought privacy to electronic transactions
Bitcoin Opener
Illustration: Harry Campbell
There's nothing like a dollar bill for paying a stripper. Anonymous, yet highly personal—wherever you use it, that dollar will fit the occasion. Purveyors of Internet smut, after years of hiding charges on credit cards, or just giving it away for free, recently found their own version of the dollar—a new digital currency calledBitcoin. 

You’ll know it when you see it (strippers who accept tips in bitcoins advertise their account addresses right on their bodies). And more important, if you pay with it, no one needs to know. Bitcoin balances can flow between accounts without a bank, credit card company, or any other central authority knowing who is paying whom. Instead, Bitcoin relies on a peer-to-peer network, and it doesn’t care who you are or what you’re buying. 

In the long run, a system like this, which restores privacy to electronic payments, could do more than just put the sneak back into the peek. If enough people take part, Bitcoin or another system like it will give political dissidents a new way to collect donations and criminals a new way to launder their money—while causing headaches for traditional financial gatekeepers.

graphic link to future of money landing page
You may have heard about Bitcoin last year, when the digital currency was briefly a major media story and speculators rushed to cash in on the rising value of bitcoins. Or perhaps you heard about hackers raiding the coffers of the largest online bitcoin exchanges, which coincided with the price of bitcoins plunging. Since January Bitcoin has stabilized. It’s been holding an exchange rate of about US $5. 

The dream of an anonymous, independent digital currency—one where privacy is maintained for buyers and sellers—long predates Bitcoin. Despite obituaries in magazine articles from ForbesWired, and The Atlantic, the dream is far from dead.

The pursuit of an independent digital currency really got started in 1992, when Timothy May, a retired Intel physicist, invited a group of friends over to his house outside Santa Cruz, Calif., to discuss privacy and the nascent Internet. In the prior decade, cryptographic tools, like Whitfield Diffie’s public-key encryption and Phil Zimmermann’s Pretty Good Privacy, had proven useful for controlling who could access digital messages. Fearing a sudden shift in power and information control, governments around the world had begun threatening to restrict access to such cryptographic protocols.

May and his guests looked forward to everything those governments feared. “Just as the technology of printing altered and reduced the power of medieval guilds and the social power structure, so too will cryptologic methods fundamentally alter the nature of corporations and of government interference in economic transactions,” he said. By the end of the meeting, the group had given themselves a name—“cypherpunks”—and the superhero-like task of defending privacy across the digital world. In just a week, cofounder Eric Hughes wrote a program that could receive encrypted e-mails, scrub away all identifying marks, and send them back out to a list of subscribers. When you signed up, you got a message from Hughes: 

Cypherpunks assume privacy is a good thing and wish there were more of it. Cypherpunks acknowledge that those who want privacy must create it for themselves and not expect governments, corporations, or other large, faceless organizations to grant them privacy out of beneficence.

Hughes and May were deeply aware that financial behavior communicates as much about you as words can—if not more. But outside of cash transactions or barter, there’s no such thing as a private transaction. We rely on banks, credit card companies, and other intermediaries to keep our financial system running. Will those corporations save and even share a dossier of your spending habits? Even using cash requires trust that the bill will maintain its worth. Will governments print too much currency or too little? Many cypherpunks would say that the only way to answer these questions is to build an entirely new system.

Gradually, their mistrust germinated into an anarchist philosophy. Most simply wanted to be able to buy things without someone looking over their shoulders. But others on the mailing list imagined liberating currency from governmental control and then using it to lash back at their perceived oppressors. 

Jim Bell, a onetime Intel engineer, took these fancies further than anyone, introducing the world to an odious thought experiment called an assassination market. Citizens needed an effective way to punish politicians who acted against the wishes of their constituents, he reasoned, and what better punishment than murder? With an anonymous digital coin, argued Bell, you could pool donations from disgruntled citizens into what amounts to bounties. If a politician made enough people angry, it would only be a matter of time before the price pushed him out of office or cost him his life. Bell’s essay, “Assassination Politics,” eventually attracted the attention of federal agents. His spiral through the U.S. court system started with an IRS raid in 1997 and ended this March with his release from prison. 

While cypherpunks like Bell were dreaming up potential uses for digital currencies, others were more focused on working out the technical problems. Wei Dai had just graduated from the University of Washington with a degree in computer science when he created b-money in 1998. “My motivation for b-money was to enable online economies that are purely voluntary,” says Dai, “ones that couldn’t be taxed or regulated through the threat of force.” But b-money was a purely personal project, more conceptual than practical.

Around the same time, Nick Szabo, a computer scientist who now blogs about law and the history of money, was one of the first to imagine a new digital currency from the ground up. Although many consider his scheme, which he calls “bit gold,” to be a precursor to Bitcoin, privacy was not foremost on his mind. His primary goal was to turn ones and zeros into something people valued. “I started thinking about the analogy between difficult-to-solve problems and the difficulty of mining gold,” he says. If a puzzle took time and energy to solve, then it could be considered to have value, reasoned Szabo. The solution could then be given to someone as a digital coin. 

In Szabo’s bit gold scheme, a participant would dedicate computer power to solving cryptographic equations assigned by the system. “Anything that works well as a proof-of-work function, producing a specific binary string such that it can be proved that generating that string was computationally costly, will work,” says Szabo. In a bit gold network, solved equations would be sent to the community, and if accepted, the work would be credited to the person who had done it. Each solution would become part of the next challenge, creating a growing chain of new property. This aspect of the system provided a clever way for the network to verify and time-stamp new coins, because unless a majority of the parties agreed to accept new solutions, they couldn’t start on the next equation. 

When attempting to design transactions with a digital coin, you run into the “double-spending problem.” Once data have been created, reproducing them is a simple matter of copying and pasting. Most e-cash scenarios solve the problem by relinquishing some control to a central authority, which keeps track of each account’s balance. DigiCash, an early form of digital money based on the pioneering cryptography of David Chaum, handed this oversight to banks. This was an unacceptable solution for Szabo. “I was trying to mimic as closely as possible in cyberspace the security and trust characteristics of gold, and chief among those is that it doesn’t depend on a trusted central authority,” he says. 

Bit gold proved that it was possible to turn solutions to difficult computations into property in a decentralized fashion. But property is not quite cash, and the proposal left many problems unsolved. How do you assign proper value to different strings of data if they are not equally difficult to make? How do you encourage people to recognize this value and adopt the currency? And what system controls the transfer of currency between people?

After b-money and bit gold failed to garner widespread support, the e-money scene got pretty quiet. And then, in 2008, along came a mysterious figure who wrote under the name “Satoshi Nakamoto,” with a proposal for something called Bitcoin. As is fitting for the creator of a private digital currency, Nakamoto’s true identity remains a secret. “I’ve never heard of anybody who knew about that name earlier,” says Szabo. “And I’m not going to speculate on who he may or may not be.”

To create a working system, Nakamoto started with the idea of a chain of data, similar to bit gold. But rather than creating a chain of digital property, Bitcoin records a chain of transactions. 

The simplest way to understand Bitcoin is to think of it as a digital ledger book. Imagine a bunch of people at a table who all have real-time access to the same financial ledger on laptops in front of them. The ledger records how many bitcoins each person at the table has at a given time. By necessity, the balance of each account is public information, and if one person wants to transfer funds to the person sitting across from him, he has to announce that transaction to everyone at the table. The entire group then appends the transaction to the ledger, which they all need to agree on. In a system like this, money never has to exist in a physical form, and yet it can’t be spent twice. 

This is basically how Bitcoin works, except that the participants are spread across a global peer-to-peer network, and all transactions take place between addresses on the network rather than individuals. Address ownership is verified through public-key cryptography, without revealing who the owner is. 

The system turns traditional banking privacy on its head: All transactions are made in public, but they’re difficult to link up with a human identity. Maintaining the dissociation takes vigilance on the part of the Bitcoin user and careful decisions about which outside applications and exchange methods to use, but it can be done. “Anonymity is typically compromised by means outside of Bitcoin’s control, in other words,” says Jeff Garzik, who is on the team of programmers now responsible for developing the Bitcoin software. Bitcoin is often described as providing pseudoanonymity, by creating enough obfuscation to provide users with plausible deniability.

People who own bitcoins have a program—called the Bitcoin client—installed on their computers to manage their accounts. When they want to access their funds, they use the client to send a transaction request. The innovation of Bitcoin is to use the processing of these transaction requests as the mechanism for creating new currency.

As requests pile up in the system, individual computers, running “mining” programs, bundle them into chunks called transaction blocks. Before each block of transactions becomes part of the accepted Bitcoin ledger, or block chain, the mining software must transform the data using cryptographic hash equations. The Bitcoin client accepts the resulting hash values only if they meet strict criteria, so miners typically need to compute many hash values before stumbling upon one that meets the requirements. That process costs a lot of computing power—so much that it would be prohibitively difficult for anyone to come along and redo the work. Each new block that gets added and sealed strengthens all the previous blocks on the chain. 

The “miner” whose computer first finds an acceptable hash value is rewarded with newly minted bitcoins. The Bitcoin system adjusts the difficulty of the hashing requirements to control the minting rate. To its proponents, this is one of Bitcoin’s biggest attractions: Unlike the printing of “fiat” currency, which can be done on demand, the creation of Bitcoins will gradually taper until it reaches a limit of 21 million coins. 

As more and more miners compete to process transactions, mining requires more computing power. Brock Tice, who mines bitcoins in St. Paul, Minn., has a whole room stuffed full of enough mining computers to heat his office in the winter. But Tice first became interested in the network for a different reason. He thought it would be a better way to accept money from customers online. 

In 2009, he began selling little blue canary-shaped night-lights from his home in New Mexico. He quickly lost patience with all the standard payment options. “I had been thinking for a while that something like Bitcoin was needed,” he says. “I run a couple of small businesses, and taking or making payments is just such a huge pain.” Every time a customer pays with PayPal, for instance, Tice hands over 2.9 percent of what he charges plus a small fee. For international sales, he pays even more. The rates for Google Checkout and credit cards are about the same, and for each one he has to open an account with the company processing the transaction, and then trust that it will eventually hand over the money. After reading about how Bitcoin works, Tice decided to include it as a payment method on his website.

For merchants like Tice, the benefits are obvious. In addition to relieving him of fees (at least for now—Bitcoin has an optional mechanism in place for miners to collect fees in the future), Bitcoin transactions won’t open him up to claims of credit card fraud. In Bitcoin, all transactions are irreversible.

On the other hand, unlike credit card users, consumers paying with bitcoins have no way to get their money back if Tice never ships the item. But as with any financial transaction, some level of trust is still required. And some customers would prefer to trust a merchant to make good on a sale than trust them to protect sensitive data. Last spring, hackers broke into the Sony PlayStation Network and swiped a trove of private account details—credit card numbers, birthdays, log-ins, passwords, home addresses, and all the names associated with them. Just days later, it happened again, and within a week the security of more than 100 million Sony accounts was at risk. “I think Bitcoin really has the potential to change our expectations about what information we give merchants,” says Gavin Andresen, Bitcoin’s project leader.

The Bitcoin system has had its own hacking problems. Other than a few die-hard miners, most people buy bitcoins at an exchange where you pay dollars, euros, or whatever and get bitcoins in return. These exchanges also allow merchants to convert their bitcoin collections into other currencies. Unfortunately, the security of the exchanges hasn’t been as good as the Bitcoin client itself. The largest online exchange, Mt. Gox, lost 500 000 bitcoins to hackers in June 2011, which sent the price barreling down. Anyone who invests in a bitcoin better understand that it’s going to be more volatile than the dollar, says Michael Kagan, the managing director at ClearBridge Advisors, an investment firm in New York City.

Even with the ups and downs, many of Bitcoin’s early adopters amassed their virtual fortunes when mining was easy, so they have an incentive to keep the system going (assuming they didn’t cash out at the peak of the bubble). It’s possible they are hoarding the currency, as the economist Paul Krugman speculated they would, waiting for the price to rise again as mining becomes more competitive and expensive. And while Bitcoin’s fixed minting rate helped attract its most fervent early adopters, it also made the barrier to entry much higher for people who want to join now. “If anything is the Achilles’ heel of Bitcoin, that probably is it,” Szabo says.

If Bitcoin does fail, it may die in an act of cannibalism. Nakamoto introduced the block chain, but cryptographers are now already working on improvements. The minting rate is only one of many things that could be tweaked. “Bitcoin is the first of a new breed,” says Garzik. “People will learn from Bitcoin and build something better, or Bitcoin’s critical mass will force it to evolve and learn from its own mistakes.”

This article originally appeared in print as "The Cryptoanarchists Answer to Cash."

About the Author

Morgen E. Peck never saw the point in writing about money or finance. Then sheattended a conference on the cryptocurrency Bitcoin and talked to anarchists, programmers, bankers, cryptographers, libertarians, finance lawyers, and a game show host. From this crucible of ideas, she emerged quite altered. “I’d like to personally thank Satoshi Nakamoto [Bitcoin’s supposed creator] for finally making money interesting enough to write about,” she says.

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Martin Armstrong: Electronic Money: The Real Conspiracy 05-30-2012

Money, Inflation, Fraud and Slavery Even a Child Can Understand It

A Monetary Policy for the 99%: Twelve-Year-Old Reformer Goes Viral
By Ellen Brown
May 30, 2012 Information Clearing House” 

 The youtube video of 12 year old Victoria Grant speaking at the Public Banking in America conference last month has gone viral, topping a million views on various websites.
Monetary reform—the contention that governments, not banks, should create and lend a nation’s money—has rarely even made the news, so this is a first.  Either the times they are a-changin’, or Victoria managed to frame the message in a way that was so simple and clear that even a child could understand it.
Basically, her message was that banks create money “out of thin air” and lend it to people and governments at interest.  If governments borrowed from their own banks, they could keep the interest and save a lot of money for the taxpayers.
She said her own country of Canada actually did this, from 1939 to 1974.  During that time, the government’s debt was low and sustainable, and it funded all sorts of remarkable things.  Only when the government switched to borrowing privately did it acquire a crippling national debt.
Borrowing privately means selling bonds at market rates of interest (which in Canada quickly shot up to 22%), and the money for these bonds is ultimately created by private banks.  For the latter point, Victoria quoted Graham Towers, head of the Bank of Canada for the first twenty years of its history.  He said:
Each and every time a bank makes a loan, new bank credit is created — new deposits — brand new money.  Broadly speaking, all new money comes out of a Bank in the form of loans.  As loans are debts, then under the present system all money is debt.
Towers was asked, “Will you tell me why a government with power to create money, should give that power away to a private monopoly, and then borrow that which parliament can create itself, back at interest, to the point of national bankruptcy?”  He replied, “If Parliament wants to change the form of operating the banking system, then certainly that is within the power of Parliament.”
In other words, said Victoria, “If the Canadian government needs money, they can borrow it directly from the Bank of Canada. The people would then pay fair taxes to repay the Bank of Canada. This tax money would in turn get injected back into the economic infrastructure and the debt would be wiped out.  Canadians would again prosper with real money as the foundation of our economic structure and not debt money. Regarding the debt money owed to the private banks such as the Royal Bank, we would simply have the Bank of Canada print the money owing, hand it over to the private banks, and then clear the debt to the Bank of Canada.”
Problem solved; case closed.
But critics said, “Not so fast.”  Victoria might be charming, but she was naïve.
One critic was William Watson, writing in the Canadian newspaper The National Post in an article titled “No, Victoria, There Is No Money Monster.”  Interestingly, he did not deny Victoria’s contention that “When you take out a mortgage, the bank creates the money by clicking on a key and generating ‘fake money out of thin air.’”  Watson acknowledged:
Well, yes, that’s true of any “fractional-reserve” banking system. Even before they were regulated, even before there was a Bank of Canada, banks understood they didn’t have to keep reserves equal to the total amount of money they’d lent out: They could count on most depositors most of the time not showing up to take out their money all at once. Which means, as any introduction to monetary economics will tell you, banks can indeed “create” money.
What he disputed was that the Canadian government’s monster debt was the result of paying high interest rates to banks.  Rather, he said:
We have a big public debt because, starting in the early 1970s and continuing for three full decades, our governments spent more on all sorts of things, including interest, than they collected in taxes. . . . The problem was the idea, still widely popular, from the Greek parliament to the streets of Montreal, that governments needn’t pay their bills.
That contention is countered, however, by the Canadian government’s own Auditor General (the nation’s top accountant, who reviews the government’s books).  In 1993, the Auditor General noted in his annual report:
[The] cost of borrowing and its compounding effect have a significant impact on Canada’s annual deficits. From Confederation up to 1991-92, the federal government accumulated a net debt of $423 billion. Of this, $37 billion represents the accumulated shortfall in meeting the cost of government programs since Confederation. The remainder, $386 billion, represents the amount the government has borrowed to service the debt created by previous annual shortfalls.
In other words, 91% of the debt consists of compounded interest charges.  Subtract those and the government would have a debt of only C$37 billion, very low and sustainable, just as it was before 1974.
Mr. Watson’s final argument was that borrowing from the government’s own bank would be inflationary.  He wrote:
Victoria’s solution is that instead of paying market rates the government should borrow directly from the Bank of Canada and pay only token rates of interest. Because the government owns the bank, the tax revenues it raises in order to pay that interest would then somehow be injected directly back into the economy. In other words, money literally printed to cover the government’s deficit would be put into circulation. But how is that not inflationary?
Let’s see.  The government can borrow money that ultimately comes from private banks, which admittedly create it out of thin air, and soak the taxpayers for a whopping interest bill; or it can borrow from its own bank, which also creates the money out of thin air, and avoid the interest.
Even a 12 year old can see how this argument is going to come out.

Ellen is an attorney and the author of eleven books, including Web of Debt: The Shocking Truth About Our Money System and How We Can Break Free. Her websites are webofdebt.com and ellenbrown.com.  She is also chairman of the Public Banking Institute
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Related:

12-Year Old 'Viral Video' Money-Reformer Supports Hyperinflation?



Greece thinks they’re the “Most Hardworking” European country. Everyone else disagrees.



A recent study from the Pew Research Center has shed light on Europeans’ perspective of the ECB, EU and stereotypes associated with other Euro countries. One of the most interesting trends in the study is that Greece considers themselves the hardest working nation, while all other countries thought it was Germany. In addition, most countries believe Greece is in fact the least hardworking country. Greece’s balance sheet supports the latter. According to the study:
“In Europe, what started out four years ago as a sovereign debt crisis, morphed into a euro currency crisis and led to the fall of several European governments, has now triggered a full- blown crisis of public confidence: in the economy, in the future, in the benefits of European economic integration, in membership in the European Union, in the euro and in the free market system. The public is very worried about joblessness, inflation and public debt, and those fears are fueling much of this uncertainty and negativity.
Europeans largely oppose further fiscal austerity to deal with the crisis. They are divided on bailing out indebted nations. They oppose Brussels’ impending oversight of national budgets. At the same time, Europeans who now use the euro have no desire to abandon it and return to their former currency. And anti-German sentiment is largely contained to Greece, at least for the moment.
The crisis has exposed sharp differences between some Europeans. Germany is the most admired nation in the EU and its leader the most respected. The Germans are judged to be Europe’s most hardworking people. And the Germans are the strongest supporters of both European economic integration and the European Union.”
Pew European Sterotypes Greece thinks they’re the “Most Hardworking” European country. Everyone else disagrees.
Pew European Unity Greece thinks they’re the “Most Hardworking” European country. Everyone else disagrees.
Continue to the full article…
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Bilderberg To Plot More Eurocratic Conspiracies This Week

Globalists fear Greek exit could torpedo single currency
By Paul Joseph Watson
Infowars.com - Wednesday, May 30, 2012
President of the European Council Herman Van Rompuy will join fellow elitists at the 2012 Bilderberg conference this week to discuss the collapsing euro and how the Greek debt crisis threatens to unravel the quest for a European federal superstate.
According to veteran Bilderberg sleuth Jim Tucker, Van Rompuy will be joined by former president of the European Central Bank Jean-Claude Trichet to wargame with other Bilderberg members on how to handle a potential Greek exit from the single currency system.
Van Rompuy’s presence at Bilderberg is particularly noteworthy given the fact that the Belgian attended a dinner organized by the Bilderberg Group in Brussels where he met with top Bilderberg steering committee members just days before he was announced as EU president back in 2009.
Van Rompuy held discussions with Bilderberg chairman Étienne Davignon, who earlier the same year had bragged to the EU Observer about how the Euro single currency was a brainchild of the Bilderberg Group. Van Rompuy also had a meeting with lifelong Bilderberg member Henry Kissinger.
Both Trichet and Van Rompuy have been staunch advocates of the single currency, in line with other Bilderberg members who, as we have highlighted, are desperate to prevent a Greek exit.
In a recent Financial Times piece written by Arvind Subramanian, a Senior Fellow at the Peter G. Peterson Institute for International Economics, which counts amongst its directors numerous influential Bilderberg members, including former Federal Reserve chairman Paul Volcker, former United States Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers, and Bilderberg kingpin David Rockefeller, the elite’s true concerns over a ‘Grexit’ are perfectly encapsulated.
“Suppose that by mid-2013 Greece’s economy is recovering, while the rest of the eurozone remains in recession. The effect on austerity-addled Spain, Portugal and even Italy would be powerful. Voters there would not fail to notice the improving condition of their hitherto scorned Greek neighbour. They would start to ask why their own governments should not follow the Greek path and voice a preference for leaving the eurozone. In other words, the Greek experience could fundamentally alter the incentives for these countries to remain in the eurozone, especially if economic conditions remained grim,” writes Subramanian, adding that Greece’s potential exit “may prove an infectious model” and lead to the demise of “the eurozone and perhaps for the European project.”
The euro crisis has been a key talking point at each of the last three Bilderberg meetings. In both 2010 and 2011, political consensus formed by Bilderberg members was enough to keep the euro on life support for another 12 months each time, and the same globalists will once again try and hammer out a strategy behind closed doors that will provide redemption for their cherished pet project.
Jim Tucker’s inside source also told him that the prospect of a war with Iran would again be a topic of this year’s confab.
According to Tucker, Bilderberg members will be convening in the west wing of the Westfields Marriott Washington Dulles hotel.
*********************

John Butler on the Dollar Liability and Gold's role as the Insurance

From CapitalAccount, May 29, 2012:


Welcome to Capital Account. China and Japan are scheduled to start trading in their own currencies Friday. The Japanese Finance Minister came out with this news. This allows traders to trade in Yuan and Yen without first converting them into Dollars. So, we'll talk about what this means for the us dollar: the global reserve currency. Are we headed towars a world where no single currency reigns supreme -- an end to what French President Charles De Gualle famously recognized as America's "exorbitant privilege?"

And more trouble in Europe as Spain's borrowing costs over Germany's rise to the highest level since the start of the Euro according to the Financial Times. The rescue of Bankia is reportedly what has investors wary, with concern about the terms of the 19 billion Euro bailout. This is jus one in a string of events we've seen over the last several months that you might think would have investors running to safe havens like gold. So why has gold been on a downward trajectory since last August then -- almost one year? Is it not a safe haven after all? John Butler, author and veteran of global finance, is here to tell us why that's not the case.

And is the US government with its debt addiction, debt ceiling debate and fiscal cliff threats setting a bad example that others are following? Well, the National Football League is reportedly raising the debt ceiling for each of its teams. We'll tell you what we think in today's episode of Loose Change with Demetri, Lauren and Shannon.

The Truth About Europe: There Is No Solution Part 1

From The Automatic earth, , MAY 30, 2012:


I like that title, The Truth About Europe: There Is No Solution. But I don't think it can all be summed up, the reasons why I mean, in one article. So I think I'll make it a running series. Still, whatever data we can look at, past, present and future, none of it will make an essential difference. The title stands: There Is No Solution For Europe. Period. All I can do is keep pointing to news and stats and data that confirm that. All of them do, so that should make it a lot easier, even if most voices out there never tire from pointing out the opposite.
Nor do I need to limit my topic to Europe; it's not as if the US, or Australia, or any other industrialized country, has any other fate to look forward to. This global debt deflation is truly global, the only thing that differs is the exact time the hammer comes down. Maybe those people are best off who never had much, though they will be sure to be squeezed ever harder by us, the declining rich.
On our travels, we repeatedly met/meet people who claim that "there is always a solution". I think that notion keeps people from understanding crucial issues, it looks more like a faith-based point of view to me than a realistic or scientific one. And no, for Europe there is no solution. In the same way that there is none for global debt deflation (keep an eye on that one!) in general. The latter is quite simply the former writ large.
It’s like people saying that if you're not part of the soluton, you're part of the problem. Sounds cute, but it's not exactly helpful when there are no solutions available. May be we should all be fed quantum mechanics in grade one, just so we understand the folly of "there is always a solution". I digress.
Well, then again, of course, everything will be "solved" one way or another in the sense that the sun will rise again tomorrow in various places (others will be cloudy on any given day) , i.e. time will run its course and something will come out of all this. That's a kind of solution too. But there won't be some clever man-made scheme that makes all the bad things go away. It simply doesn't work like that. Not this time, if ever. The ECB or IMF or Bernanke or whoever will not be able to stop the financial rut. The issue is more that they ain't even trying, but manage to make people believe they are.
What they can and will all do, however, is make everything worse. Much worse. For the man in the street.
Who is being told that he needs to have his wages and pensions cut and lose his home so the economy can recover. While his sparse remaining wealth is transferred to bankrupt financial institutions.
The future European situation, from the point of view of the man in the street, could be mitigated, made better, improved, enormously, though two simple measures. Which will not be executed. Because those who make the decisions don’t do so with the man in the street in mind. Quite the contrary. But still.
First, the ECB and the troika it represents (which all represent the financial institutions, but that’s another story) could treat their own claims on Greece - and, eventually - Spain, Italy etc., like they insisted private creditors' claims were treated. That is, take a 50-70-90% haircut on those claims. That would give Greece a lot of breathing space. And Spain too. Not even considered.
But much more than that, Europe should restructure its banks. And not in the way Spain tries to do with Bankia, by pumping $20-odd trillion into it. How that was ever labeled "restructuring" is beyond me, frankly. No, banks should be restructured in the "old fashioned" sense. Put their books on the table out in the open, see what debts there are, what assets, what liabilities, and if the ultimate count is negative, let it go under. Simple. Shave creditors, save depositors.
Europe, like America, could have used all those trillions in bailout money to guarantee their citizens deposits. Instead, both have opted to guarantee their banks' losses. A clear and simple choice. But also one that just about nobody seems to have understood.
There are tons of people, I read and hear them every day, who think that the extend and pretend phase can last for years more. After all, they argue, it's already lasted for four or five.
They miss the point. Or A point, a big one.
Which is that if and when bankrupt financial institutions (and they are bankrupt, or they wouldn't have needed those trillions) are saved with our money, there is a direct claim on our wealth. And even more importantly, there is a claim on our future earning power. Those trillions will have to be earned back, after all.
The problem is that there is a limit to our earning power. That limit is there today, and there is precious little reason to believe it's not going to be there tomorrow (barring divine intervention). And that means that the financial world will come to the conclusion one day that any additional funds derived from government guarantees based on our (yourself, your children and grandchildren) future earning power are losing credibility.
The European safety nets, the ESM and EFSF, are already - hilariously and only on paper, but still officially - relying on contributions from Italy and Spain. Which will not be able to comply. And will count on Germany to make up the difference. And there's a limit there too. So the bond markets will conclude some day soon that even if the EU sold all its children into unpaid slavery, they still couldn't possibly pay for all the commitments made in European societies. And there the buck will stop.
What we can learn from all this is that our money is used to prop banks, and the banking system, while at the same time our debt to those same banks, and that same system, rises. The ECB and the Fed lend money to banks, money "underwritten" by our present and future earning power, at something like 0.05%, money the banks use to either buy sovereign bonds which pay interest rates that are 5 or 10 or 20 times higher (depending on the country we live in), or to prop up their accounts at the central banks, which also earn them higher rates. Both options, again, are underwritten by our earning power.
Our money keeps our banks alive through a mechanism that makes our debt to them grow while we keep them alive. All our central banks need to do is make sure that bond yields are higher than the interest they charge banks on "emergency loans".
Oh wait, they can't even do that forever. Yields on US, German, Japanese bonds will fall mercilessly as investors seek safety. But hey, who's talking about forever? All they need is something that works today, and provides the time to think about an equally profitable scheme tomorrow. If you're too big to fail today, why not buy some Spanish bonds? Losses can always be transferred and profits pocketed.
Now you may say: the banks are bankrupt regardless, so why would a central bank or government pull these stunts? To answer that, you need to know who rules the banking system and the governments systems. And who votes for the latter. You.
To be continued.
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Greek Aid Is Really Enhanced Vendor Financing and Foreign Bank Bailouts

When the Pain From Spain Moves Across the Plain

Spain faces 'total emergency' as fear grips markets

Spanish 10 yr bond yields reach 6.66%/Italian bond yields 5.93%/Failed Italian bond auction/Dow plummets by 160 points with major European indices also falling

Now, It’s Italy’s Turn As Spain Continues To Break All Records

ITALY’S RECESSION IS DEEPENING

Eurozone Retail Sales Crash: Record Declines in France and Italy, Overall Revenues Drop at Near Record Pace

Can Brussels Limit Euro Exit To Only Greece?

The Danes also want a referendum on the Fiscal Treaty

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Protect Your ASSets: Buy Gold or Silver NOW - If you wait you will be late.
(He who panics first, just may salvage something.