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Jun 5, 2012

Merkel Meets the World – Eye-to-Eye – and the World Demands a Political Union

From The Daily BellTuesday, June 05, 2012 – by Staff Report


 
Germany Is Open to Pooling Debt, With Conditions ... Pressed by a banking crisis and turmoil in the markets, Germany has indicated that it is prepared to accept a grand bargain that would provide greater support for its most indebted euro zone partners in exchange for more centralized control over government spending in Europe ... The German chancellor, Angela Merkel, said that finding the way to "more Europe, not less" was the next task for Europe's leaders. "The world wants to know how we expect the political union to complement the currency union," Ms. Merkel said at a news conference here Monday with José Manuel Barroso, the president of the European Commission. "We have to find an answer in the foreseeable future." – New York Times


Dominant Social Theme: Thank goodness Merkel is coming to her senses.


Free-Market Analysis: Like some sort of bad joke or living nightmare the European Union rolls along. It really does resemble a Zombie apocalypse, though unfortunately it is not a Hollywood production but an ever-expanding political engorgement.


One would think that having bankrupted half of Europe, the Masters of the Euro-verse would be having second thoughts about plunging ahead. Not so. The only thing that will do is MORE union, says Ms. Angela Merkel, Germany'sIron Chancellor.


The world wants to know how a "political union" will complement an economic one. Really? Where exactly did Ms. Merkel meet this "world"? How did she communicate with it? Did she look it in the eye? It's a pretty big place; what did she stand on? Does it even have an "eye"? Let alone two ...
No, this is rhetorical nonsense. She is groping for answers, but there is no answer. There is likely – as we often postulate – only a tiny power elite that controls central banks and wants to create an official world government as well.
And Ms. Merkel apparently works for them.


Power is an aphrodisiac, people say. But it seems to us that Ms. Merkel really has no power. She is actually following a script. She is a player in a drama that has seemingly been unfolding for the past century at least with thousands of main and bit actors.


It is what might be called directed history. And, indeed, all the world's a stage, as Shakespeare wrote (whoever HE was). The difference between the real world and stagecraft is that when people are killed in battle, they don't get back up again to take a bow at the drama's end. And poverty, malnutrition and disease are all too real, not merely devices to advance the plot.


We are told – for months, even years – that Germans are adamant that they not end up in a position where they shall have to pay billions to shore up the EU. Austerity is the only feasible solution.


But suddenly, there is an alternative, one that does not breach the various fundamental compacts that are essential to the larger cooperative body. Here's how the article (above) describes it:


German officials remain adamant that they are not talking about euro bonds, or jointly issued debt, which they have dismissed as unconstitutional. More likely is a plan to combine much of Europe's bad debt into a single fund with the idea of paying it off over 25 years, an idea gaining traction in Germany as an alternative to euro bonds, officials say.


The worsening crisis has led to a sweeping effort to chart a new path forward for the union, one that encompasses fiscal integration, Europe-wide banking supervision, and tighter coordination of economic policies.


German leaders have not provided details of a potential deal — and not every country may be eager to sign on — but it would be likely to mean an expansion of executive power in Brussels over fiscal targets in member states and supervision of their banks, along with Europewide deposit insurance. It would go far beyond what was contemplated for Europe even six months ago.
Changes on this scale would not be easy, involving an arduous process of treaty alterations that could take years, and it is unclear if they would be enough to reassure markets of the stability of the euro. But as Ms. Merkel has repeatedly made clear, Germany would be open to rescuing ailing banks and member states in the region only if that were part of an overhaul of the basic architecture of European governance.


What the article is not telling us is that this new "sinking" fund is reportedly to be backed by ... wait for it ... tons and tons of gold extracted from the union's miserable and indebted PIGS. This is the ultimate irony – that the fate of the EU rests on the provision of this much-maligned metal.


John Maynard Keynes called gold a "barbaric relic" – but he also said "in the long run we're all dead." And Keynes is dead but much of the mischief he did in his life lives on.


Ultimately, Keynes worked for the same Money Power that Merkel recognizes. Ms. Merkel's role is to provide the argumentation that will make the dénouement more believable. Keynes had a bigger part. His charge, apparently, was to justify the role of government in the implementation of Money Power.


Keynes performed very well. So has Merkel in a more subdued way. Of course, she is assisted by a cast of thousands. And at each juncture we are told solemnly that there is no assurance of success. The EU can fail at any moment. Full-scale depression can crash down upon the world at any time.


It is all what we call a dominant social theme, a fear-based promotion. The idea is to scare the masses into accepting globalism. Trillions of tons of newsprint will likely be disseminated to convince us of this faux-reality.
The article ends with the following observation:


"Merkel is slowly adapting to different times because she is afraid of not jumping on the train in time," said Stefan Kornelius, foreign editor of the German newspaper Süddeutsche Zeitung. "She doesn't want to be the gravedigger for the euro."


Conclusion: What a charade! Merkel will not be the gravedigger for the euro because that is not her role. Having been painted as the primary obstacle to the survival of the EU, she has suddenly emerged as the world leader most in favor of its enhancement. Coincidence? You decide.
____


Related:

G7 Is Concerned About Euro Collapse ... Sure They Are!



Pirate Politics to Save the European Union


So what's new in the world since yesterday's Daily Reckoning arrived in your inbox? Not much could be new, as we explained on the weekend. We've seen it all before, on a regular basis. Sovereign debt crises, housing bubbles, debt ratings - nothing new here. But we might be a little wiser since yesterday. Thanks to the likes of Blackbeard and his marketing department.
That's because Blackbeard and the pirates before him invented the system of governance you might call constitutional democracy. Or, at the very least, they popularised it, and well before the likes of Madison put pen to paper to write the American constitution.
The idea that pirates were better at governing themselves than the European Union might seem a little surreal, unless you're a very sceptical person when it comes to the EU. So prepare for your timbers to be shivered and your preconceptions of pirates to be swashbuckled. According to Peter Leeson, author of the Invisible Hook, a wordplay on Adam Smith's invisible hand, pirates were quite a civilised bunch. When it came to governing themselves, that is.
They didn't have plain packaging laws, but did ban smoking in certain parts of the ship. Not in the ship's restaurants and cafes - that would be pointless. Just where the gunpowder was kept. And things like theft were forbidden, while gambling and drunkenness were regulated.
Pirates had bonuses for everyone based on performance, but not golden handshakes for captains who lost their ship. All races were treated equally, negating the need for anti-discrimination rules. Pirates even had workers compensation for injuries. The right leg and left leg were valued differently.
It's very interesting that a bunch of criminals from many different nations, races and religions, speaking many languages, could live together in very close quarters in a civilised way. All without any police force or legal recourse. That's the difference between governance and government, according to Leeson. A government has a monopoly on power - the threat of violence.
Once you remove that monopoly, everything must be agreed to or all hell breaks loose. The fact that pirates were armed was a pretty good incentive for powerbrokers on board the pirate ship to keep everyone happy. It forced the captain to stick to the rules. That's an incentive the American constitution took on board too, providing the'right to bear arms'.
But here are the parts of pirate governance (not government) that the Europeans should learn from:
  • Pirate crews could call an election for captain at any time.
  • Pirate crews agreed to the Ships Articles - think of it as a constitution.
  • Pirate crews were paid a share of the spoils, not a wage. The only way to get paid more was to perform well.
These three things aligned incentives and balanced power - neither of which the EU features much of. Hence EU politicians engage in the following type of behaviour:

'Past projects [the EU] has backed include a £5.7million European Identity programme, featuring a donkey travelling from country to country complete with a solar panel and video camera, a TV channel costing £7million and watched by just 830 viewers per day and £570 million for development in Turkey, which isn't even in the union.'

Ever heard of a solar powered pirate ship? Or one carried by a donkey? No, because it's not efficient, and inefficiency costs pirates money. Each one of the pirates, that is. For EU bureaucrats, inefficiency buys votes and creates jobs.
Pirates were also much better at dealing with crises than the EU. In battle, the Captain's order was law. But that ended as soon as the battle did. The rest of the time, someone called the Quartermaster carried out any administrative tasks. And he was up for election any time as well.
Pirates mastered public relations too. How many times have we heard the EU's politicians claim that their ideas are brilliant, but they just can't communicate them effectively? If people would just listen... Pirates mastered the art of making people listen. How they did it is very interesting.
Merchant ships were often raided by other nations' ships as well as pirates. Resisting a foreign ship was honourable. Resisting a pirate ship was stupid. If you lost the battle with a foreign ship, there was a good chance of mercy. Pirates, on the other hand, had a reputation to uphold, and a business to run.
A sunken ship is a failed business venture to a pirate. So you want to incentivise the crew to give up without a fight. Pirates provided this incentive by being rather gruesome to any crews that did resist and were caught. Of course, dead men tell no tales, so a few of you might still survive.
But if you cooperated with the pirates, things were likely to go a little better. You might even get a job offer. And be allowed to vote for your captain, unlike on merchant ships where captains had absolute power.
That sort of tyranny wouldn't go down well on a pirate ship. Best of all, you get to share in the spoils if you joined in the looting. So what do you think merchant sailors did if they saw the skull and crossbones? They gave up, and considered joining in on the plunder.
Don't for a moment think that pirates were interested in stealing the likes of livestock though. No, they were sound money enthusiasts - another credit to their name (pun intended). And while income tax didn't exist back then, it's worth noting that pirates didn't pay tax at all.
It's no surprise that the Americans borrowed the ideas of constitutional democracy from the pirates. The system of governance worked. And it's also no surprise that one of the libertarian movement's heroes is a pirate who goes by the name of Ragnar Danneskjold.
He's a fictional pirate in the world of Atlas Shrugged, where governments have taken their crony capitalism to its illogical end. While some of his productive contemporaries do a Harold Holt (disappear), Ragnar takes up arms and decides to rob the crony capitalists of their stolen wealth. More on that tomorrow.
Unlike the world of pirates, Europe uses a truly disastrous governance scheme. If the pirates had an invisible hook instead of an invisible hand, then the Europeans have an invisible screw loose. A more polite and sophisticated way of putting this is that Europe's governance systems are a tragedy of the commons.
The incentives are completely unaligned. This is something politicians don't get, so they don't worry about it. But it explains a whole lot. And economist Phillip Bagus does the explaining in his book Tragedy of the Euro. It's an excellent book. Here's one point Bagus makes on the EU's monetary system.
Usually, a government can't just spend and inflate the currency willy nilly to create jobs and buy votes. At least, it eventually ends badly when they try. Inflation and the interest rate that lenders demand both serve as warning signs. But in the Eurozone those two warning signs disappear.
You can export the inflation that spending and printing creates, because everyone uses the same currency. Monetising part of Greece's deficit would be hardly noticeable because the effect of inflation is spread across Europe. It's not just a Greek problem. Of course, when every country figures this out, they all abuse the currency.
As for the interest rates that lenders demand, the Greeks were spared that harsh feedback too. To understand how, things might get a little technical for a moment. Government bonds can be pledged as collateral with the ECB in exchange for money. This is how monetary policy is conducted within the EU.
It's also very similar to the way Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers financed themselves. But ignore that for now. Because Greek bonds could be pledged as collateral at the ECB alongside German ones, but the Greek ones paid more interest, Greek bonds were in demand. And demand for bonds means the interest rates stay low, despite the growing Greek debt.
Economists call this situation, both with regard to inflation and interest rates, a moral hazard. The benefits of government spending and inflation are not felt by the same people as the costs. And so European governments spent and inflated away.
The problem with this is that it sets the stage for another financial crisis. Banks like government bonds because they are considered safe by their regulators (talk about conflict of interest!) and because they can be pledged as collateral with the central bank. That also happens to be why they liked subprime CDOs back in 2006. And once again, the assumptions are wrong and dangerous. Government bonds are not safe, AAA rated or not.
While pirates were very careful about how they stowed their cargo, the Europeans have been stuffing their ships with the financial equivalent of gunpowder. Gunpowder with its fuse already lit. CNBC reports:

'US and European regulators are essentially forcing banks to buy up their own government's debt - a move that could end up making the debt crisis even worse, a Citigroup analysis says.

'..."having banks loaded up with domestic sovereign debt will only increase the domestic fallout if the sovereign ultimately reneges on its obligations."'
If you ever wondered what 2008 would have looked like without government bailouts, you may yet get your opportunity to find out. Not that it will be much fun. Especially if governments are failing alongside the banks.
If only the EU politicians and their voters had the same political wisdom as pirates. This never would have happened.
Regards,

Nick Hubble
_____-

Related:

Merkel and Her Crew: Only More Union Will Do

Merkel demands hand over of sovereignty before any other options considered

Euro Elite: Using Financial Crisis To Centralize Power

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Protect Your ASSets: Buy Gold or Silver NOW - If you wait you will be late.
(He who panics first, just may salvage something.